Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team


The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is a group at MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis in the Imperial College Faculty of Medicine which studies the COVID-19 pandemic and advises the government of the United Kingdom. Its leader is Neil Ferguson.
On 16 March 2020 the COVID-19 Response Team produced a research forecast of various scenarios for spread of the disease in the United Kingdom and the United States. Without any mitigation their forecast showed local health care capabilities vastly overwhelmed by the epidemic wave. Periodic cycles of quarantine followed by softer social distancing were recommended, with quarantines in effect two thirds of the time. On 30 March, a study on 11 European countries was published. It provided estimates of the situation as of 28 March, and projections for 31 March given current expectations, no action, and the difference. It also provided a list of government policies and their respective absolute dates. As of 6 July, the COVID-19 Response Team has produced 30 reports.

Reports

Estimates

11 European countries estimates on March 28, 2020

World estimates for 3 strategies