2020 Belarusian presidential election


Presidential elections will be held in Belarus on Sunday, 9 August 2020. The president will be elected directly to serve for five years.
Incumbent Alexander Lukashenko will be running for a sixth term in office, having won every presidential election since independence in the 1990s, with all but the first being labeled as neither free nor fair.

Background

On 8 May 2020, the National Assembly set 9 August as the date for the presidential election. Incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko has been leading the country since the first presidential elections held in 1994, and is described by the international community as leading an authoritarian dictatorship following a consolidation of power shortly thereafter. Opposition activists are often pressured or detained by the government, and Lukashenko or those loyal to him control all of the seats in both houses of the National Assembly, all judicial appointments, the media, and the Central Election Commission.

Electoral system

The President of Belarus is elected using the two-round system. If no candidate obtains over 50% of the vote, a second round is held with the top two candidates. The winner of the second round is elected.
Despite the two-round system being in place, a second round has not been required since 1994, with Lukashenko winning a supermajority of votes in the first round in each subsequent election under dubious circumstances. No election after 1994 has been labeled by the international community at-large as free or fair.

Candidates

Registered candidates

Following list of the candidates were officially registered by the Central Election Commission of Belarus as candidates for the presidential election on 21 July 2020.
CandidateOccupationSubject of nominationApplication dateInitiative group registration dateSize of initiative group
Alexander LukashenkoIncumbent President of BelarusSelf-nomination17 November 201915 May 202011,480
Siarhei CherachenChairman of the Belarusian Social Democratic AssemblyBelarusian Social Democratic Assembly11 January 202020 May 20201,127
Hanna KanapatskayaMember of Parliament Self-nomination12 May 202020 May 20201,314
Andrey DmitrievCo-chairman of the political movement "Tell the Truth"Tell the Truth8 May 202020 May 20202,399
Sviatlana TsikhanouskayaSpouse of Belarusian YouTuber and activist Siarhei TsikhanouskiSelf-nomination15 May 202020 May 2020247

Denied candidates

In January 2020, five opposition forces, the Movement "For Freedom", Belarusian Christian Democracy, Belarusian Social Democratic Party, BPF Party and United Civic Party of Belarus reached a definite agreement to hold primaries to field a single candidate from the Belarusian opposition. Yury Hubarevich, Paval Sieviaryniec, Volha Kavalkova, Aliaksei Yanukevich and Mikalai Kazlou were listed as potential candidates.
The Belarusian Green Party announced that it would not participate in the primaries and the election.

Collection of signatures

Most government organizations forced their employees to sign for Alexander Lukashenko under threats that their work contracts would not be renewed.

Campaign

Siarhei Tsikhanouski and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

On 7 May Belarusian blogger and entrepreneur Syarhei Tsikhanouski has announced on his YouTube channel "Country for Life" that he intended to become a candidate in the presidential election. Prior to this event, on 6 May he was detained by the Belarusian police in the vicinity of Mahilyow.
The police officers refused to present identification and threatened to break the windows of the car that Tsikhanouski was in. Prior to that, a crowd of Tsikhanouski's supporters in Mahilyow released a member of Tsikhanouski's team from the police. A day later, allies of Tsikhanouski were arrested, including a blogger from Slutsk, Uladzimier Niaronski. The Tsikhanouski's team, including Niaronski, were chased by road police and two minivans with members of the police special forces.
The blogger's arrest was due to his trips around the Belarus that covered consequences of the Lukashenko’s 26-year tenure as a president. The Tsikhanouski trips were popular and gathered hundreds of people who spoke out to him about violations of human rights and economic problems. During these trips, Tsikhanouski and his team was constantly chased by cars with the people which were recording him and his activities, presumably they were employees of the Belarusian special services.
After the Tikhanovski was arrested, his supporters held a series of protests across the Belarus. According to Radio Liberty, 20 to 30 people were detained in Homiel, which is Tsikhanouski's hometown. Viasna Human Rights Centre reported that at least 19 of his supporters were brutally detained in Minsk.
After his arrest, Tsikhanouski was transported to Homiel, where he was placed in a temporary detention center. The formal reason for his detention was his participation in the rally against the integration of Belarus with Russia on 19 December 2019 in Minsk. After his detention, Tsikhanouski has announced on his YouTube channel his intention to run for president of Belarus. The video had recorded 250,000 views in 20 hours after the publication. The aforementioned YouTube channel had 163,000 subscribers as of 8 May. However, the Central Election Commission of Belarus refused to register the initiative group to nominate him.
His spouse, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, decided to apply for election as a candidate, her initiative group was successfully registered by the Central Election Commission of Belarus. Tsikhanouski became the head of the initiative group to collect signatures for Tikhanovskaya's participation in the election.
On 20 May Tsikhanouski was released from the temporary detention center. He explained that the pressure of activist supporters helped to achieve it. In an interview with Tsikhanouski after his release, Deutsche Welle drew parallels between the Belarusian blogger and Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the Ukrainian actor Volodymyr Zelensky, who became the president of Ukraine. RTVI also drew a parallel between Tsikhanouski and Navalny.
Tsikhanouski then began travelling round the country to hold pickets in order to collect signatures for Tsikhanouskaya. Tsikhanouski's pickets were very popular and attracted thousands of people. The queue to the picket in Minsk near Kamarouski market was half a mile long. Several thousand people also attended the picket of Tsikhanouski in Homiel. Tsikhanouski announced that he was collecting signatures for fair election in Belarus.
Tsikhanouski uses the slogan "Stop the cockroach!" in his campaign, which is chanted by his supporters. The symbol of the campaign is a slipper. The slogan "Stop the cockroach!" refers to the fairy tale "Cockroach" by Soviet poet Kornei Chukovsky about how a "moustached cockroach" intimidated all the animals and became their ruler. Apparently, this slogan is a reference to the current leadership of Belarus. Slippers are supposedly a traditional means of pest control. Euronews journalists called the events in Belarus the "Slipper Revolution", demonstrating the quote of the Belarusian activist Franak Viačorka with this phrase.
On 29 May Tsikhanouski visited Hrodna to collect signatures for his wife. On the same day, the head of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko alluded to Tsikhanouski at a meeting with workers of Minsk Tractor Works: "They come cool, all in jeeps — 10-12 cars... we know whose cars he drives, who finances it. We know where he comes from, what his citizenship is and stuff... We all know that. I'm already looking, they're giving me information, our people have already seen it." Tsikhanouski commented on Lukashenko's statement to the Nasha Niva newspaper: "My last name isn't there, but a hint of me: "We know his citizenship." They have information, analytical work! I have one citizenship, I never had any other. In terms of money — I've had business since 2005, I have money."
A few hours after Lukashenko's statement, when Tsikhanouski was talking with the residents of Hrodna, nearby there was a provocation, where policeman fall by him self and was laying on the ground whistling. After one minute and thirteen seconds later, Tsikhanouski was detained by :be:АМАП |AMAP. Eight vans arrived to detain him. The soldiers of the special unit escorted Tsikhanouski into a police GAZelle van without showing their IDs. During the arrest, the van's door was broken. The blogger's supporters tried to stop the vans from leaving the place of detention. Unidentified people in tracksuits then cleared the way for the police transport to leave in a struggle with Tsikhanouski's supporters. Then supporters then went to the police station in Hrodna to demand the blogger's release.
Shortly after Tsikhanouski's arrest, Belarusian state-owned TV channel Belarus 1 showed a story where the events in Hrodna were covered as follows: "From the very first minutes, this collection of signatures turned into a rally, and according to the law, it is prohibited to hold campaign meetings at this stage of the election campaign. As a result, this manner of communication turned into a scuffle. The police, trying to restore order, found themselves in the epicenter of the scuffle, which was arranged on the square. One of the police officers was attacked." The leader of the United Civil Party, retired lieutenant colonel of the Belarusian police, Mikalai Kazlou, noted that during his speech at Minsk Tractor Plant, Alexander Lukashenko "gave the command to screw, twist, throw in jail, and the minister immediately seized this opportunity and created a provocation". Kazlou also noted that all the policemen involved in this provocation would be exposed and brought to justice.
According to the Vesna Human Rights Centre, at least 13 people were detained, including two members of Tsikhanouskaya's initiative group and three assistants of Tsikhanouski. The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus announced that investigators had opened a criminal case for violence against police officers.
Tsikhanouskaya made an official statement regarding the detention of her husband and the head of the headquarters of her initiative group in Hrodna: "I officially declare: Today, 29 May, during a picket in Hrodna in support of my candidacy for the presidency there was a "dirty" provocation against Syarhei Leanidovich Tsikhanouski, head of the headquarters of my initiative group. He was detained. I declare responsibly that the picket was legal and peaceful. In connection with this, I demand the immediate release of the head of my initiative group, otherwise, I will regard it as a violation of my constitutional rights and pressure on me as a candidate for the presidency of Belarus". She promised to submit relevant applications to the CEC and the Interior Ministry.
The first two mass rallies after registration by the Tsikhanouskaya campaign were held on 19 July in Banhalore Square in Minsk and the city of Dzyarzhynsk with an audience of around 7,500. She was joined on stage by Babaryka's campaign manager Maryja Kalesnikava and Tsepkalo's wife Veranika as they had announced earlier that they would merge their campaigns.

Female Solidarity

Before the 2020 presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko insisted that Belarus is not ready for a woman to be president. On 17 July the three women representing the main opposition candidates merged their campaigns, pitting "Female Solidarity" against Lukashenko.

Pressure by authorities and the government

was detained on 18 June during the reported arrest of several hundred opposition supporters. Charges of embezzlement and fraud have been brought against Babaryka, who is currently being held in a State Security Committee detention centre in the Minsk.
Valery Tsepkalo who was not allowed to register as a candidate, and has "gone to Moscow with his children, fearing for his safety". During an interview, Tsepkalo mentioned that his friends in law enforcement agencies warned "an order had gone out for my arrest". Tsepkalo said he planned to give press conferences in Russia, Ukraine, Western Europe and the United States to expose "the true nature of the Belarusian regime." His wife, Veronika Tsepkalo, is remaining in Belarus to help the campaign of Lukashenko's main competitor in the election, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
In June, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya released a video saying that she had been threatened with arrest, and her children being taken away if she continued to campaign. She had to send her children abroad to live with their grandmother for their safety.

Solidarity

Demonstrations in solidarity with the Belarusian opposition have been held in more than 20 countries and in more than 30 cities around the world.

Opinion polls

Internet polls

;Legend
Poll
Date20.05.202020.05.202022.05.202026.05.202026.05.2020
Participants70,02916,52635,77532,1289,705
Babaryka54.91%49.7%52.43%56%32%
Gaidukevich1.28%0.65%3.93%0.4%—
Hantsevich0.34%—0.62%—0%
Hubarevich0.45%—0.23%—0%
Dzmitryjeŭ0.58%0.32%0.33%0.29%0%
Kanapackaja4.14%2.5%1.7%1.4%1%
Kisel0.63%—0.22%—0%
Kavalkova0.37%—0.21%—0%
Kazlou0.64%—0.61%0.32%1%
Lukashenko6.24%2.96%3.90%3%1%
Nepomnyashchikh0.4%—0.4%—0%
Tabolich1.37%2.3%0.25%0.9%2%
Tsikhanouski or Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya12.71%18.39%17.37%12%51%
Tsepkalo15.22%7.5%9.8%17%7%
Cherachen0.72%0.28%0.16%—0%
Against all or other answer—15.37%7.8%7.7%4%

Conduct

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe reported that it would not be monitoring the 2020 election as it had not been sent a timely invitation. It had not recognised any elections in Belarus as free and fair since 1995.