2005 Virginia gubernatorial election


The Virginia gubernatorial election of 2005 was a race for the Governor of Virginia, United States, held on November 8, 2005, and won by Democrat Tim Kaine, who was later elected as the junior senator for the state. Virginia is the only state in the United States to prohibit governors from serving successive terms, so the popular incumbent, Mark Warner, could not run for reelection.

Primary elections

Democratic Party

The general election itself was expected to be close with Independent candidate Russ Potts as a possible spoiler candidate. Kaine remained behind in polls throughout most of the campaign, at one point 10 points behind Kilgore, but captured a slight lead in the final weeks of the campaign. Kaine led in some polls for the first time in October 2005, and held his lead into the final week before the election.
Kaine closely associated himself with popular outgoing Democratic Governor Mark Warner during his campaign; he won his race by a slightly larger margin than Warner. He promised homeowner tax relief, centrist fiscal leadership, and strong support for education. A number of factors, from the sagging poll numbers of President George W. Bush to a public disgust over the death penalty ads run by Kilgore, have also been cited as key to his decisive win.
The election was the most expensive in Virginia history, with the candidates combined raising over $42 million

Campaign

Kilgore resigned as Attorney General in February 2005 to run for Governor and easily won the primary election against Warrenton Mayor George B. Fitch to become the Republican nominee. In the general election, he ran against Democratic nominee Tim Kaine, the Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, and State Senator Russ Potts, a pro-choice Republican who ran as an independent candidate. Early in the race, Kilgore showed solid leads of ten points or more in the polls, but Kaine steadily closed the gap and ultimately defeated Kilgore by a margin of 52% to 46%.
Kilgore's campaign was at times criticized for taking steps to avoid debates; Kilgore refused to debate Potts for the majority of the campaign, at times leaving Kaine and Potts to debate each other in his absence. He agreed to debate only with Kaine, and only if the footage could not be aired in campaign commercials. During this debate, he refused to answer whether or not he would make abortion a crime. This apparent public moderation of his previously open and hard-line stance on abortion troubled some of his conservative supporters.
He was further criticized for failing to limit his negative advertisements to 50% of his campaign's total publicity as Kaine proposed. One such advertisement featured a father whose son had been murdered by a man who was on Virginia's death row; the father expressed doubt that the sentence would be carried out if Kaine were elected and alleged that Kaine would not even have authorized the execution of Adolf Hitler, based on an interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch. The negative reaction to the mention of Hitler combined with Kaine's pledge to carry out the death penalty and explanation of his personal opposition as arising from his Catholic faith helped to neutralize what many observers thought would've been a potent issue for Kilgore.
In trying to explain how a solid Republican could lose a traditionally Republican state by such a large margin, political commentators cited numerous key factors. Kaine's campaign had many political advantages, including his association with the state's popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner and defense of Warner's 2004 budget priorities, his "response ads" to Kilgore's death penalty advertisements, which featured him speaking to voters about his religious convictions, his relentless in-person campaigning across the state, and his opposition to tax increases. Experienced attorney Lawrence Roberts served as Kaine's campaign chairman. In contrast, Kilgore's campaign had many political disadvantages, including a backlash over the death penalty ads that Kilgore's campaign ran in the fall, the relatively low poll numbers of then-President George W. Bush at the time the election, and a bitter division between the moderate and conservative wings of the Republican party over tax and spending priorities.

Debates

Results

While the previous Democratic Governor, Mark Warner, was credited with doing especially well for a Democrat in rural areas of the commonwealth, Kaine's win featured surprising triumphs in traditionally Republican areas such as Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and the Northern Virginia suburbs of Prince William County and Loudoun County, as well as impressive showings in Democratic strongholds such as Richmond and Norfolk.
CountyKaineVotesKilgoreVotesPottsVotesOthersVotes
Accomack49.8%3,86048.5%3,7541.6%1260.1%5
Albemarle61.2%18,45536.4%10,9942.4%7110.0%14
Alexandria71.9%25,06126.3%9,1731.7%6050.1%25
Alleghany53.9%2,90744.0%2,3732.1%1150.0%2
Amelia37.0%1,36860.9%2,2512.0%740.1%3
Amherst43.6%3,57654.2%4,4502.1%1750.0%4
Appomattox39.5%1,80458.3%2,6632.2%990.1%4
Arlington74.3%42,31923.9%13,6311.7%9900.1%49
Augusta33.1%6,39563.1%12,1973.7%7210.1%12
Bath45.1%72953.2%8601.6%260.1%2
Bedford County37.1%7,52460.8%12,3302.1%4200.1%14
Bedford49.1%89248.2%8772.6%470.1%2
Bland36.8%70661.4%1,1761.8%340.0%0
Botetourt39.4%4,08358.4%6,0532.2%2270.1%10
Bristol37.8%1,54861.5%2,5150.7%270.0%1
Brunswick60.3%2,69139.0%1,7420.7%310.0%2
Buchanan52.2%3,17147.3%2,8750.4%270.1%4
Buckingham47.9%1,82250.0%1,8992.1%800.0%0
Buena Vista51.9%79946.3%7131.8%280.0%0
Campbell36.8%5,31961.3%8,8641.8%2640.1%15
Caroline53.7%3,39644.0%2,7862.2%1420.0%1
Carroll38.9%2,94259.2%4,4851.9%1430.0%1
Charles City69.1%1,56529.6%6711.3%290.0%0
Charlotte43.2%1,63754.9%2,0781.8%690.1%2
Charlottesville79.4%8,01818.5%1,8702.0%2050.1%11
Chesapeake50.3%26,61247.1%24,8852.6%1,3570.1%34
Chesterfield44.7%40,13453.6%48,1121.7%1,4840.1%81
Clarke45.0%2,22547.6%2,3507.3%3630.1%4
Colonial Heights29.4%1,77768.2%4,1162.4%1430.0%2
Covington61.5%1,02235.3%5873.2%530.0%0
Craig42.4%75454.8%9752.7%480.2%3
Culpeper38.0%3,68959.4%5,7622.5%2420.1%5
Cumberland43.8%1,14454.3%1,4201.9%500.0%0
Danville53.3%6,05245.6%5,1771.0%1190.0%2
Dickenson48.0%2,37751.6%2,5590.4%180.1%3
Dinwiddie46.4%3,16851.6%3,5231.9%1310.1%4
Emporia48.6%79649.8%8151.6%260.0%0
Essex48.7%1,50049.8%1,5331.5%450.0%0
Fairfax County60.1%163,66738.0%103,2851.8%4,9070.1%241
Fairfax57.2%3,86540.7%2,7502.0%1320.1%9
Falls Church72.5%3,13825.5%1,1021.8%770.2%10
Fauquier43.4%7,74653.3%9,5053.2%5760.1%20
Floyd44.4%1,95952.7%2,3242.9%1290.0%0
Fluvanna49.7%3,59247.8%3,4562.5%1780.0%1
Franklin County44.9%7,01752.2%8,1572.8%4410.0%3
Franklin57.5%1,39440.8%9881.7%410.0%0
Frederick33.7%6,02759.8%10,6986.3%1,1250.1%26
Fredericksburg60.8%2,61136.4%1,5612.7%1180.1%4
Galax50.0%73047.5%6932.5%360.0%0
Giles49.3%2,57048.1%2,5072.5%1320.1%5
Gloucester39.6%3,98556.6%5,6883.7%3730.1%12
Goochland42.4%3,29255.6%4,3131.9%1460.1%5
Grayson40.3%1,87558.3%2,7101.4%660.0%0
Greene41.1%1,84656.3%2,5262.6%1150.0%1
Greensville55.8%1,83343.4%1,4240.8%250.0%1
Halifax43.8%3,93154.5%4,8871.7%1490.1%5
Hampton63.8%20,96133.7%11,0782.5%8140.1%25
Hanover36.3%12,78461.5%21,6372.2%7700.1%19
Harrisonburg51.0%3,53946.8%3,2512.0%1380.2%12
Henrico53.2%49,17045.1%41,6191.6%1,4920.1%78
Henry50.8%7,45447.8%7,0041.4%1980.0%3
Highland39.5%47857.8%7002.6%320.1%1
Hopewell45.1%2,30053.0%2,7051.8%900.1%4
Isle of Wight45.7%4,66451.5%5,2622.8%2850.0%4
James City48.5%10,20548.0%10,1043.3%7040.1%16
King and Queen54.3%1,11443.7%8962.0%400.0%1
King George43.0%2,04254.1%2,5692.8%1330.1%5
King William42.7%1,95154.9%2,5092.4%1080.0%2
Lancaster44.2%2,04353.3%2,4632.4%1130.1%6
Lee34.4%2,45365.0%4,6400.6%420.0%0
Lexington64.6%1,09733.4%5671.9%330.0%0
Loudoun51.6%31,07445.8%27,5392.5%1,5010.1%65
Louisa45.9%3,71651.7%4,1792.4%1930.0%2
Lunenburg45.3%1,49053.2%1,7491.5%480.1%2
Lynchburg50.9%8,32947.1%7,7081.9%3080.2%27
Madison43.2%1,67254.4%2,1052.3%900.1%4
Manassas46.2%3,16751.6%3,5322.1%1470.1%4
Manassas Park45.7%65052.8%7511.4%200.1%2
Martinsville62.4%2,36336.4%1,3801.1%430.1%2
Mathews40.7%1,45254.5%1,9464.8%1700.0%0
Mecklenburg42.8%2,98655.4%3,8641.9%1310.0%0
Middlesex40.2%1,53057.0%2,1672.7%1040.0%1
Montgomery55.4%11,50941.8%8,6702.7%5600.1%19
Nelson55.4%2,75542.5%2,1132.1%1020.0%2
New Kent40.4%2,24157.3%3,1792.3%1270.0%2
Newport News57.4%21,74339.9%15,0952.6%9920.1%42
Norfolk66.1%27,79130.7%12,8993.1%1,2900.1%50
Northampton60.8%2,05837.1%1,2562.2%730.0%0
Northumberland44.3%2,10453.6%2,5482.0%950.1%6
Norton44.9%44954.0%5391.1%110.0%0
Nottoway49.9%1,99348.6%1,9421.5%590.0%0
Orange45.5%3,88852.4%4,4812.1%1820.0%0
Page38.7%2,38558.2%3,5913.0%1850.1%4
Patrick41.7%2,11156.4%2,8531.8%930.1%4
Petersburg81.8%5,99517.4%1,2740.8%590.0%2
Pittsylvania37.7%6,36360.8%10,2521.5%2500.0%6
Poquoson34.2%1,38362.2%2,5153.5%1430.1%3
Portsmouth65.7%16,31431.9%7,9262.3%5600.1%17
Powhatan32.3%2,74465.6%5,5802.0%1700.1%6
Prince Edward52.1%2,54646.2%2,2591.7%850.0%1
Prince George40.9%3,38257.5%4,7511.6%1300.0%3
Prince William49.9%33,36448.2%32,1781.8%1,2200.1%35
Pulaski46.5%4,42751.4%4,9012.1%1990.0%0
Radford54.2%1,92843.1%1,5342.6%940.1%2
Rappahannock51.1%1,39747.0%1,2831.8%500.1%2
Richmond County39.3%86358.8%1,2931.9%420.0%0
Richmond75.9%38,90022.5%11,5291.5%7690.1%40
Roanoke County44.7%14,12552.8%16,6862.4%7550.1%29
Roanoke61.8%14,20735.9%8,2392.2%5050.1%21
Rockbridge46.1%2,99351.6%3,3542.2%1420.1%5
Rockingham32.4%6,56065.5%13,2622.0%4040.1%19
Russell43.9%3,43155.2%4,3140.9%690.0%0
Salem47.1%3,78849.7%3,9933.0%2420.1%12
Scott26.2%2,15673.2%6,0160.5%430.0%0
Shenandoah32.4%3,99663.9%7,8743.6%4380.1%12
Smyth36.7%2,98962.1%5,0531.1%910.0%2
Southampton49.8%2,44248.0%2,3542.2%1100.0%1
Spotsylvania43.8%11,06154.0%13,6352.1%5330.2%38
Stafford43.6%10,92454.1%13,5592.2%5640.1%28
Staunton50.0%3,38446.0%3,1124.0%2700.0%3
Suffolk53.7%10,48043.9%8,5612.3%4560.1%12
Surry60.7%1,48037.7%9191.5%370.1%3
Sussex54.5%1,73943.9%1,4011.5%480.0%0
Tazewell40.8%4,19458.1%5,9701.0%1060.0%4
Virginia Beach48.6%47,12048.0%46,4713.3%3,1780.1%120
Warren40.3%3,40855.7%4,7053.9%3290.1%9
Washington33.9%5,18865.4%10,0090.7%1080.0%5
Waynesboro44.5%2,22351.9%2,5963.6%1810.0%0
Westmoreland52.3%2,21945.4%1,9242.2%930.1%3
Williamsburg60.5%1,78236.7%1,0812.7%800.0%1
Winchester45.1%2,68342.0%2,49712.8%7630.1%8
Wise38.2%3,87161.2%6,1900.6%560.0%5
Wythe37.8%3,12559.9%4,9542.2%1850.1%5
York44.4%8,14252.1%9,5653.4%6200.1%16

Balance of power