There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
Associated Press: Toss-Up
CNN: Bush
Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
Newsweek: Toss-Up
New York Times: Toss-Up
Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
Research 2000: Toss-Up
Washington Post: Battleground
Washington Times: Battleground
Zogby International: Kerry
Washington Dispatch: Bush
Polling
Pre-election polling had Bush and Kerry winning polls, with neither candidate grasping a strong lead. The last 3 poll average showed Bush leading 49% to 46%.
Fundraising
Bush raised $1,993,040. Kerry raised $1,130,602.
Advertising and visits
Bush visited the state 12 times. Kerry visited the state 14 times. A total of between $1.3 million to $3.6 million was spent each week.
Analysis
Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the last four elections before the sixth time in 2004. The urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison tend to vote strongly Democratic. The suburbs of those cities are politically diverse, but tend to vote Republican. Counties in the western part of the state tend to be liberal, a tradition passed down from Scandinavian immigrants. The rural areas in the northern and eastern part of the state are the most solidly Republican areas in Wisconsin. The CNN exit polls showed a dead heat between the two. However, the deciding factor for Kerry's victory was union members who voted for him with 62%, while non-members voted for Bush with just 52% of the vote.
Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.
