There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
D.C. Political Report: Republican
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Takeaway: Leaning McCain
Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Republican
Washington Post: Leaning McCain
Politico: Solid McCain
Real Clear Politics: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain
CQ Politics: Toss-up
New York Times: Leaning Republican
CNN: Toss-up
NPR: Leaning McCain
MSNBC: Toss-up
Fox News: Republican
Associated Press: Republican
Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican
Polling
Pre-election polls showed a complete toss up. The final 3 polls averaged gave Obama leading 45% to 44%, leaving a lot of undecided voters.
Fundraising
John McCain raised a total of $184,405 in the state. Barack Obama raised $191,551.
Advertising and visits
Obama and his interest groups spent $448,361. McCain and his interest groups spent $71,972. Obama visited the state once, in Fargo, North Dakota, while the Republican ticket didn't visit the state once.
Analysis
North Dakota has been considered a reliably red state for the past 40 years, having voted for the Republican presidential nominee of every election since 1968. In 2008, however, polls taken before September surprisingly showed the two candidates running neck-to-neck. While the polls varied throughout the campaign, McCain's selection of the socially conservative Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as his vice presidential running mate played well in North Dakota, a state that has the lowest percentage of nonreligious citizens in the country. After Palin joined the ticket in late August, McCain then took a double digit lead in the state until October, when polling once again showed a close race between the two candidates in the Peace Garden State. On Election Day 2008, however, McCain captured North Dakota by a fairly safe margin of approximately 8.65 points, despite the latest polling showing him just one point ahead of Obama. Still, the statewide result was significantly closer than in 2004 when Bush carried the state by a much larger margin of more than 27%. McCain did well throughout the western and central parts of the state, while Obama won several counties in the east including the most populous counties of Cass County and Grand Forks County. At the same time, popular incumbent Republican Governor John Hoeven was reelected to a second term in a landslide three-to-one victory over Democrat Tim Mathern and Independent DuWayne Hendrickson. Hoeven received 74.44% of the vote while Mathern took in 23.53% and Hendrickson with the remaining 2.03%. Democrats, however, made gains at the state level, picking up three seats in the North Dakota House of Representatives and six seats in the North Dakota Senate. , this is the last election in which Cass County, Grand Forks County, Mountrail County, Towner County, Traill County, Nelson County, and Eddy County voted for the Democratic candidate.
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.
District
McCain
Obama
Representative
At-large
53.1%
44.5%
Earl Pomeroy
By county
Electors
Technically the voters of North Dakota cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Dakota is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin: