Strategic early warning system


The aim of a strategic early warning system is to assist organizations in dealing with discontinuities or strategic surprises. By detecting weak signals, which can be perceived as important discontinuities in an organizational environment, SEWS allows organizations to react strategically ahead of time.

Underlying theory

The underlying assumption of SEWS is that discontinuities do not emerge without warning. These warning signs are described as "weak signals", a concept aimed at early detection of those signals which could lead to strategic surprises -- events which have the potential to jeopardise an organization’s strategy. Furthermore, the concept of a SEWS is intended to constitute an important part of a strategic management system, operating real-time in an organization, and assisting in identifying the new, which emerge as those "weak signals".
Detecting weak signals is achieved by scanning the organizational environment. The concept of environmental scanning describes a process whereby the environment in which an organization operates is systematically scanned for relevant information. The purpose is to identify early signals of possible environmental change and to detect environmental change already underway.
The need for a formal strategic early warning process in organizations is based in large part on the existence of blindspots, which prevents leaders and executives from identifying weak signals of change. Any formal SEWS process must incorporate blindspots analysis as part of its cycle.
The system must be able to detect symptoms and weak signals outside and in the company and sent to a competent employee who will carry out an analysis of the cause of this state and confirm or deny negative development that might lead to a crisis situation.

Phases

The ideal SEWS process has three phases.
The scanning activity is complemented by monitoring trends and issues that have already drawn attention.