Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election
This article provides a collection of statewide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the 2008 United States presidential election.
Opinion polling
Alabama
9 electoral votesAlaska
3 electoral votesArizona
10 electoral votesArkansas
6 electoral votesCalifornia
55 electoral votesColorado
9 electoral votesConnecticut
7 electoral votesDelaware
3 electoral votesDistrict of Columbia
3 electoral votesFlorida
27 electoral votesGeorgia
15 electoral votesHawaii
4 electoral votesIdaho
4 electoral votesIllinois
21 electoral votesIndiana
11 electoral votesIowa
7 electoral votesKansas
6 electoral votesKentucky
8 electoral votesLouisiana
9 electoral votesMaine
4 electoral votesMaryland
10 electoral votesMassachusetts
12 electoral votesMichigan
17 electoral votesMinnesota
10 electoral votesMississippi
6 electoral votesMissouri
11 electoral votesMontana
3 electoral votesNebraska
5 electoral votesNevada
5 electoral votesNew Hampshire
4 electoral votesNew Jersey
15 electoral votesNew Mexico
5 electoral votesNew York
31 electoral votesNorth Carolina
15 electoral votesNorth Dakota
3 electoral votesOhio
20 electoral votesOklahoma
7 electoral votesOregon
7 electoral votesPennsylvania
21 electoral votesRhode Island
4 electoral votesSouth Carolina
8 electoral votesSouth Dakota
3 electoral votesTennessee
11 electoral votesTexas
34 electoral votesUtah
5 electoral votesVermont
3 electoral votesVirginia
13 electoral votesWashington
11 electoral votesWest Virginia
5 electoral votesWisconsin
10 electoral votesWyoming
3 electoral votesLatest results (using latest polling when available)
This results section uses only the last polls for each state. It is for indicative purposes only, and is highly susceptible to polling errors. The numbers in parentheses indicate the number of electoral votes awarded to each state. A total of 538 electoral votes are distributed among the states and DC. Margins of 10% or more are considered "safe"; margins of 5% to 9.9% are considered "likely" and margins of 0.1% to 4.9% are considered "leaning". Margins of multiple polls concluded the same day are averaged out. Because of small sample size, it is highly volatile and should only be taken as examples.Barack Obama − Joe Biden
- Total states
- Safe states
- *Alabama
- *Alaska
- *Idaho
- *Kansas
- *Kentucky
- *Mississippi
- *Nebraska
- *Oklahoma
- *Tennessee
- *Texas
- *Utah
- *West Virginia
- *Wyoming
- Likely states
- *Arkansas
- *Indiana
- *South Carolina
- *South Dakota
- Leaning states
- *Arizona
- *Georgia
- *Louisiana
- *North Dakota
- Total states
- *Missouri
Maps of recent polling data
| Safe Obama – over 10% ' | Likely Obama – over 5% ' ' | Leans Obama – over 1% ' ' | Tossup – within 1% ' | Leans McCain – over 1% ' ' | Likely McCain – over 5% ' ' | Safe McCain – over 10% |
| District of Columbia – 69.0% Hawaii – 38.3% New York – 29.0% Vermont – 27.4% Delaware – 23.8% Illinois – 22.8% California – 22.7% Massachusetts – 20.3% Connecticut – 20.1% Maryland – 18.2% Rhode Island – 17.0% New Jersey – 16.5% Oregon – 15.4% Washington – 14.6% Maine – 14.0% Michigan – 13.8% Iowa – 13.0% New Hampshire – 12.9% Minnesota – 11.9% Wisconsin – 11.3% New Mexico – 10.1% | Pennsylvania – 7.4% Colorado – 7.2% Nevada – 6.1% Virginia – 5.6% | Ohio – 4.6% Florida – 3.1% | North Carolina – 0.9% Obama Missouri – 0.1% McCain North Dakota – 0.5% McCain | Arizona – 4.7% Georgia – 4.1% Montana – 2.5% Indiana – 1.3% | Arkansas – 9.7% South Dakota – 9.0% West Virginia – 7.9% | Oklahoma – 29.3% Utah – 26.2% Idaho – 25.2% Wyoming – 23.6% Alabama – 23.4% Nebraska – 20.7% Kansas – 16.8% Alaska – 16.7% Tennessee – 15.2% Kentucky – 13.7% Texas – 11.9% South Carolina – 11.5% Mississippi – 11.0% Louisiana - 10.2% |
Totals
- Obama leads: 338 electoral votes
- McCain leads: 171 electoral votes
Election Day projection
- Data derived from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com weighted averages and statistical polling analysis, which determines what the best guess as to what will happen on Election Day is rather than what would happen if the election were held today.
- Each state is colored according to which candidate is currently projected to win, and both the state's total electoral votes and the winning candidate's projected margin of victory are listed.
- The actual result matches this map with the exceptions that Barack Obama won Indiana and Nebraska's second congressional district.