Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election


Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament. Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand and Television New Zealand polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.
The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

Individual polls

UMR and Curia polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour and National. Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.
PollDateNationalLabourGreenNZ FirstMāoriACTConManaTOP
PollDate
2014 election result20 Sep 201447.0425.1310.708.661.320.693.971.40
UMR ResearchOct 20145024137.81.50.63.00.8
UMR ResearchNov 20144725137.62.70.43.00.8
UMR ResearchDec 20144530146.10.60.23.30.5
UMR ResearchJan 20154831125.81.00.01.60.0
UMR ResearchFeb 20154632125.01.50.72.70.3
UMR ResearchMar 20154631116.91.60.43.10.4
UMR ResearchApr 20154332137.61.81.11.20.3
UMR ResearchMay 20154631106.81.31.13.00.4
UMR ResearchJun 20154532137.51.20.50.90.2
UMR ResearchJul 20154135146.71.20.33.00.5
UMR ResearchAug 20154231148.51.50.50.40.4
UMR ResearchSep 20154531138.70.10.81.00.4
UMR ResearchOct 20154831107.91.11.00.50.2
UMR ResearchNov 20154431138.01.50.51.20.1
UMR ResearchDec 20154535108.31.01.00.20.2
UMR Research31 Aug – 5 Sept 201640311411––––
UMR ResearchLate Jan 20174630119–––––
UMR ResearchEarly Feb 201744301211–––––
UMR ResearchLate Feb 20174828128–––––
UMR ResearchEarly Mar 201742301410–––––
UMR ResearchLate Mar 201744301210–––––
UMR ResearchEarly Apr 201743281312–––––
UMR ResearchLate Apr 201743281212–––––
UMR ResearchEarly May 20174234139–––––
UMR ResearchLate May 20174430139–––––
UMR ResearchEarly Jun 20174232139–––––
UMR ResearchLate Jun 201743291211–––––
UMR Research5–10 Jul 201742261314–––––
UMR ResearchLate Jul 201742231516–––––
UMR Research1–8 Aug 2017433688––––3
UMR Research11–16 Aug 2017403789––––3.5
Curia20 Sep 2017433966–––––

Preferred Prime Minister

Graphical summary

Individual polls

Electorate polling

Ōhāriu">Ōhāriu (New Zealand electorate)">Ōhāriu

Party vote

Party vote

Candidate vote

The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)">Māori electorates">The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)

Party vote

[Ikaroa-Rāwhiti]

Party vote

Candidate vote

[Te Tai Hauāuru]

Party vote

Candidate vote

[Te Tai Tonga]

Party vote

Candidate vote

[Hauraki-Waikato]

Party vote

Candidate vote

[Tāmaki Makaurau]

Party vote

Candidate vote

[Te Tai Tokerau]

Party vote

Candidate vote

Forecasts

New Zealand does not have a strong tradition of third-party forecast models. Some private individuals have created their own projection models.