Opinion polling for the 2008 New Zealand general election


Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 48th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2008 election by various organisations, the main four being Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2008 election

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Individual polls

Preferred Prime Minister

Graphical summary

Individual polls

PollDateHelen
Clark		Don
Brash		John
Key		Winston
Peters
TV3–TNS27 October – 2 November 20054319–8
TV3–TNS26 January – 2 February 20063916–7
TV3–TNS23–29 March 20063815–6
TV3–TNS4–10 May 20063418–6
TV3–TNS29 June – 5 July 2006381306
TV3–TNS24–30 August 2006381705
Herald–DigiPoll31 August 200652.422.48.55
Herald–DigiPoll22–24 September 200650.825.99.24.8
TV3–TNS26 October–1 November 20063515––
Herald–DigiPoll14 November–2 December 200654.23.928.5–
TV3–TNS25 January–1 February 2007351245
One News–Colmar Brunton12–15 February 200732–273
One News–Colmar Brunton17–22 March 200732–294
TV3–TNS22–28 March 2007371284
One News–Colmar Brunton14–19 April 2007371293
TV3–TNS3–9 May 2007301325
Herald–DigiPoll18–24 May 200742.1–45.55.4
One News–Colmar Brunton19–24 May 2007270.3382
PollDateHelen
Clark		Don
Brash		John
Key		Winston
Peters
One News–Colmar Brunton30 June–5 July 2007290.5352
TV3–TNS5–11 July 2007311314
Herald–DigiPoll5–19 July 200748.7–37.97
One News–Colmar Brunton4–9 August 2007300.7334
TV3–TNS30 August – 5 September 2007281326
Fairfax Media Poll15 September 200734–413
One News–Colmar Brunton8–13 September 2007330.3314
Herald–DigiPoll29 September 200746.8–42.2–
One News–Colmar Brunton6–11 October 2007330.2333
Herald–DigiPoll8–28 October 200750.8–37.35
Fairfax Media Poll17 November 200738–36–
Herald–DigiPoll8–26 November 200748.7–36.78.1
TV3–TNS5–12 December 200728–336
One News–Colmar Brunton8–13 December 2007300.2352
Herald–DigiPoll10–24 January 200849.7–39.23.8
TV3–TNS23–30 January 200829–336
One News–Colmar Brunton9–14 February 2008270.4364
Fairfax Media–Nielsen13–19 February 200829–44–
TV3–TNS19–26 February 200828–355
Herald–DigiPoll11–28 February 200844.30.246.33.3
One News–Colmar Brunton8–13 March 200831–365
Herald–DigiPoll6–27 March 200845.6–45.93.9
PollDateHelen
Clark		Don
Brash		John
Key		Winston
Peters
TV3–TNS10–16 April 200832–296
One News–Colmar Brunton12–17 April 200829–354
Fairfax Media–Nielsen9–22 April 200833–42–
Herald–DigiPoll5–26 April 200845.3–48–
Fairfax Media–Nielsen7–13 May 200828–455
Herald–DigiPoll5–28 May 200842.3–44.66.7
TV3–TNS23–29 May 200829–356
One News–Colmar Brunton24–29 May 200828–366
Fairfax Media–Nielsen11–17 June 200830–432
One News–Colmar Brunton14–19 June 2008270.2384
Fairfax Media–Nielsen9–15 July 200832–393
One News–Colmar Brunton12–17 July 2008310.3384
TV3–TNSReleased 18 July 200828–326
Herald–DigiPollReleased 29 July 200844–47.14.9
Fairfax Media–Nielsen6–12 August 200831–432
One News–Colmar Brunton9–14 August 200833–363
TV3–TNS14–20 August 200831–343
Herald–DigiPoll3–25 August 200845–46.65.6
PollDateHelen
Clark		Don
Brash		John
Key		Winston
Peters
One News-Colmar Brunton6–11 September 2008310.1403
Fairfax Media–Nielsen10–16 September 200830–412
Herald–DigiPoll15–24 September 200843.1–45.54
TV3–TNSReleased 28 September 200832–34–
One News-Colmar Brunton27 September–2 October 200831–413
TV3–TNSReleased 10 October 200831.6–31–
One News-Colmar Brunton4–9 October 200831–392
Fairfax Media–Nielsen8–14 October 200835–43–
One News-Colmar Brunton11–16 October 2008340.1402
TV3–TNSReleased 23 October 200836.3–36.3–
Herald–DigiPoll15–22 October 200845.4–44.84.0
One News-Colmar Brunton18–23 October 200837-383
One News-Colmar Brunton1–5 November 200836–401