The national debtof the People's Republic of China is the total amount of money owed by the government and all state organizations and government branches of China. As of May 2020, it stands at approximately 39 trillion, equivalent to about 48.4% of GDP. Standard & Poor's Global Ratings has stated Chinese local governments may have an additional 400 trillion in off-balance sheet debt. The high debt level is a current economic issue facing China.
Size
The International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and other sources, such as the Article IV Consultation Reports, state that, at the end of 2014, the "general government gross debt"-to-GDP ratio for China was 41.54 percent. With China's 2014 GDP being 10,356.508 billion, this makes the government debt of China approximately 4.3 trillion. The foreign debt of China, by June 2015, stood at around 1.68 trillion, according to data from the country's State Administration of Foreign Exchange as quoted by the State Council. The figure excludes the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau. Chinese foreign debt denominated in the U.S. dollar was 80 percent of the total, euros 6 percent, and Japanese yen 4 percent.
Issues and concerns
By the mid-2010s, many analysts have expressed concern over the overall "size" of the Chinese government debt. An IMF working paper, published in 2015, states that "financial sector reforms in China are progressing at an uneven pace", adding that "progress in removing implicit state guarantees has been slower." This, according to the IMF paper, means that "with implicit state guarantees still in place, banks have little incentives to seek better projects and correctly price risk." A 2015 International Monetary Fund report concluded that China's public debt is relatively low "and on a stable path in all standard stress tests except for the scenario with contingent liability shocks," such as "a large-scale bank recapitalization or financial system bailout to deal, for example, with a potential rise in NPLs from deleveraging." "Shadow banking" has risen in China, posing risks to the financial system. Chinese authorities have dismissed analysts' worries, insisting that "the country still has room to increase government debt." Finance Minister Lou Jiwei stated that China's "fiscal income is in a severe situation," yet the government "need to expand the fiscal deficit, but it is hard to say how much room is appropriate." Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, earlier in 2016, commented that "the...debt pile facing China an 'internal' problem, given the majority of the borrowings was issued in local currency. Many economists have expressed the same views, dismissing worries over the size of Chinese government debt, either in absolute terms or in proportion to the nation's GDP, as "nonsensical".
Local and provincial debt
By 2015, local government entities owed a total of about 18 trillion yuan, mostly to state-owned banks who had made loans to the local governments "to fund risky land and property deals." The Chinese central government authorized provinces to issue at least 2.6 trillion yuan in bonds in 2015 in order to stabilize the financial system. However, demand for provincial bonds from the private market was weak due to inadequate yields, and in May 2015, the central government directed state-owned lenders to buy the local bonds, creating a debt swap akin to a bailout.
