The class number h of the cyclotomic field is a product of two integers h1 and h2, called the first and second factors of the class number, where h2 is the class number of the maximal real subfield of the p-th cyclotomic field. The first factor h1 is well understood and can be computed easily in terms of Bernoulli numbers, and is usually rather large. The second factor h2 is not well understood and is hard to compute explicitly, and in the cases when it has been computed it is usually small. Kummer showed that if a prime p does not divide the class number h, then Fermat's Last Theorem holds for exponent p. The Kummer–Vandiver conjecture states that p does not divide the second factor h2. Kummer showed that if p divides the second factor, then it also divides the first factor. In particular the Kummer–Vandiver conjecture holds for regular primes.
Evidence for and against the Kummer–Vandiver conjecture
Kummer verified the Kummer–Vandiver conjecture for p less than 200, and Vandiver extended this to p less than 600. verified it for p < 12 million. extended this to primes less than 163 million. describes an informal probability argument, based on rather dubious assumptions about the equidistribution of class numbers mod p, suggesting that the number of primes less than x that are exceptions to the Kummer–Vandiver conjecture might grow like log logx. This grows extremely slowly, and suggests that the computercalculations do not provide much evidence for Vandiver's conjecture: for example, the probability argument suggests that one should only expect about 1 counterexample in the first 10100 primes, suggesting that it is unlikely any counterexample will be found by further brute forcesearches even if there are an infinite number of exceptions. gave conjectural calculations of the class numbers of real cyclotomic fields for primes up to 10000, which strongly suggest that the class numbers are not randomly distributed mod p. They tend to be quite small and are often just 1. For example, assuming the generalized Riemann hypothesis, the class number of the real cyclotomic field for the prime p is 1 for p<163, and divisible by 4 for p=163. This suggests that Washington's informal probability argument against the conjecture may be misleading. gave a refined version of Washington's heuristic argument, suggesting that the Kummer–Vandiver conjecture is probably true.