Estimates of historical world population


This article lists current estimates of the world population in history. In summary, estimates for the progression of world population since the late medieval period are in the following ranges:
Year14001500160017001800190020002100
population
0.35-0.400.43-0.500.50-0.580.60-0.680.89-0.981.56-1.716.06-6.15c. 10-13
growth p.a.>0%<0.12%0.15-0.3%0.1-0.15%0.3-0.5%0.5-0.6%1.3-1.4%0.7-0.8%

Estimates for pre-modern times are necessarily fraught with great uncertainties, and few of the published estimates have confidence intervals; in the absence of a straightforward means to assess the error of such estimates, a rough idea of expert consensus can be gained by comparing the values given in independent publications. Population estimates cannot be considered accurate to more than two decimal digits;
for example, the world population for the year 2012 was estimated at
7.02, 7.06 and 7.08 billion by the United States Census Bureau, the Population Reference Bureau and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, respectively, corresponding to
a spread of estimates of the order of 0.8%.

Deep prehistory

As a general rule, the confidence of estimates on historical world population decreases for the more distant past.
Robust population data exists only for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as in Ancient Egypt and the Persian Empire, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service.
Published estimates for the 1st century suggest an uncertainty of the order of 50%.
Some estimates extend their timeline into deep prehistory, to "10,000 BC", i.e. the early Holocene, when world population estimates range roughly between one and ten million.
Estimates for yet deeper prehistory, into the Paleolithic, are of a different nature. At this time human populations consisted entirely of non-sedentary hunter-gatherer populations, with anatomically modern humans existing alongside archaic human varieties, some of which are still ancestral to the modern human population due to interbreeding with modern humans during the Upper Paleolithic.
Estimates of the size of these populations are a topic of paleoanthropology. A late human population bottleneck is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the Toba catastrophe, when Homo sapiens population may have dropped to as low as between 1,000 and 10,000 individuals.
For the time of speciation of Homo sapiens, some 200,000 years ago, an effective population size of the order of 10,000 to 30,000 individuals has been estimated, with an actual "census population" of early Homo sapiens of roughly 100,000 to 300,000 individuals.
The question of "how many people have ever lived?" or "what percentage of people who have ever lived are alive today" can be traced to the 1970s.
The more dramatic phrasing of "the living outnumber the dead" also dates to the 1970s, a time of population explosion and growing fears of human overpopulation in the wake of decolonization and before the adoption of China's one-child policy.
The claim that "the living outnumber the dead" was never accurate. Arthur C. Clarke in has the claim that "Behind every man now alive stand 30 ghosts, for that is the ratio by which the dead outnumber the living", which was roughly accurate at the time of writing.
Recent estimates of the "total number of people who have ever lived" are in the order of 100 billion.
The answer naturally depends on the definition of "people", i.e. is only Homo sapiens to be counted, or all of genus Homo, but due to the small population sizes in the Lower Paleolithic, the order of magnitude of the estimate is not affected by the choice of cut-off date substantially more than by the uncertainty of estimates throughout the Neolithic to Iron Age.
The estimate is more crucially affected by the estimate of infant mortalities vs. stillborn infants, due to the very high infant mortality throughout the pre-modern period. An estimate on the "total number of people who have ever lived" as of 1995 was calculated by Haub at "about 105 billion births since the dawn of the human race" with a cut-off date at 50,000 BC, and an inclusion of a high infant mortality rate throughout pre-modern history.

Historical population

Before 1950

The following table uses astronomical year numbering for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BC. The table starts counting around the Late Glacial Maximum period, in which ice retreated and humans started to spread into the northern hemisphere.
From the beginning of the early modern period until the 20th century, world population has been characterized by a faster-than-exponential growth.
For the period of Classical Antiquity to the Middle Ages, roughly 500 BC to AD 1500, there has also been a general tendency of growth, but not strictly monotonic: A noticeable dip in world population is assumed due to the Black Death in the mid-14th century.
YearPRB
UN
Maddison
.
"The historical data were originally developed in three books: Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992, OECD, Paris 1995; The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD Development Centre, Paris 2001; The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD Development Centre, Paris 2003. All these contain detailed source notes. Figures for 1820 onwards are annual, wherever possible. For earlier years, benchmark figures are shown for 1 AD, 1000 AD, 1500, 1600 and 1700."
"OECD countries GDP revised and updated 1991-2003 from National Accounts for OECD Countries, vol. I, 2006. Norway 1820-1990 GDP from Ola Grytten, "The Gross Domestic Product for Norway, 1830-2003" in Eitrheim, Klovland and Qvigstad, Historical Monetary Statistics for Norway, 1819-2003, Norges Bank, Oslo.
Latin American GDP 2000-2003 revised and updated from ECLAC, Statistical Yearbook 2004 and preliminary version of the 2005 Yearbook supplied by Andre Hofman. For Chile, GDP 1820-2003 from Rolf Lűders, "The Comparative Economic Performance of Chile 1810-1995", Estudios de Economia, vol. 25, no. 2, with revised population estimates from Diaz, J., R. Lűders, and G. Wagner Chili 1810-2000: la Republica en Cifras, mimeo, Instituto de Economia, Universidad Católica de Chile. For Peru, GDP 1896-1990 and population 1896-1949 from Bruno Seminario and Arlette Beltran, Crecimiento Economico en el Peru 1896-1995, Universidad del Pacifico, 1998. "
"For Asia there are amendments to the GDP estimates for South and North Korea, 1911-74, to correct an error in Maddison. Estimates for the Philippines, 1902-1940 were amended in line with Richard Hooley, 'American Economic Policy in the Philippines, 1902-1940', Journal of Asian Economics, 16. 1820 estimates were amended for Hong Kong, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Thailand."
"Asian countries GDP revised and updated 1998-2003 from AsianOutlook, April 2005.
Population estimates for all countries except China and Indonesia revised and updated 1950-2008 and 2030 from International Data Base, International Programs Center, Population Division, US Bureau of the Census, April 2005 version. China's population 1990-2003 from China Statistical Yearbook 2005, China Statistics Press, Beijing. Indonesian population 1950-2003 kindly supplied by Pierre van der Eng. The figures now include three countries previously omitted: Cook Islands, Nauru and Tuvalu."		HYDE
Tanton
Biraben
McEvedy &
Jones 		Thomlinson
Durand
Clark
−100002M4M1–10M
−90004M
−80005M5M5–10M
−70008M
−600011M
−500018M5M5–20M
−400028M7M
−300045M14M
−200072M27M
−1000115M50M
−200150M
1300M300M231M188M150M255M170M200M270–330M256M
100195M
200202M256M190M
300205M
350254M
400209M206M190M
500210M206M190M
600213M206M200M237M
700226M207M210M
800240M224M220M261M
900269M226M240M
1000310M267M295M254M265M275–345M280M
1100353M301M320M
1200393M400M360M384M
1250400M416M
1300392M300M432M360M400M
1340443M378M
1400390M374M350M
1500500M438M461M460M425M440–540M427M
1600556M554M579M545M498M
1650545M500M516M
1700603M603M600M679M610M600M641M
1750791M814M770M720M700M735–805M731M
18001,000M978M989M900M954M900M900M890M
18201,042M
18501,265M1,262M1,263M1,241M1,200M1,200M
18701,276M
18751,325M
19001,656M1,650M1,563M1,654M1,600M1,633M1,625M1,600M1,650–1,710M1,668M
19101,750M1,777M
19131,793M
19201,860M1,863M1,912M1,968M
19252,000M
19302,070M2,092M2,145M
19402,300M2,299M2,307M2,340M

1950 to present

For times after World War II, demographic data of some accuracy becomes available for a significant number of countries, and population estimates are often given as grand totals of numbers of widely diverging accuracies. Some sources give these numbers rounded to the nearest million or the nearest thousand, while others give them without any rounding.
Taking these numbers at face value would
be false precision; in spite of being stated to four, seven or even ten digits, they should not be interpreted as accurate to more than three digits at best.
YearUnited States Census Bureau
Population Reference Bureau
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Maddison
HYDE
Tanton
Biraben
McEvedy &
Jones 		Thomlinson
Durand
Clark
19502,557,628,6542,516,000,0002,525,149,0002,544,000,0002,527,960,0002,400,000,0002,527,000,0002,500,000,0002,400,000,0002,486,000,000
19512,594,939,8772,572,850,9172,571,663,000
19522,636,772,3062,619,292,0682,617,949,000
19532,682,053,3892,665,865,3922,665,959,000
19542,730,228,1042,713,172,0272,716,927,000
19552,782,098,9432,761,650,9812,769,074,000
19562,835,299,6732,811,572,0312,822,502,000
19572,891,349,7172,863,042,7952,879,934,000
19582,948,137,2482,916,030,1672,939,254,000
19593,000,716,5932,970,395,8142,995,909,000
19603,043,001,5083,026,002,9423,041,507,0003,042,000,000
19613,083,966,9293,082,830,2663,082,161,000
19623,140,093,2173,141,071,5313,135,787,0003,036,000,000
19633,209,827,8823,201,178,2773,201,354,000
19643,281,201,3063,263,738,8323,266,477,000
19653,350,425,7933,329,122,4793,333,138,000
19663,420,677,9233,397,475,2473,402,224,0003,288,000,000
19673,490,333,7153,468,521,7243,471,464,000
19683,562,313,8223,541,674,8913,543,086,000
19693,637,159,0503,616,108,7493,615,743,000-
19703,712,697,7423,691,172,6163,691,157,0003,710,000,0003,637,000,0003,600,000,0003,600,000,000– 3,700,000,0003,632,000,000
19713,790,326,9483,766,754,3453,769,818,000
19723,866,568,6533,842,873,6113,846,499,000
19733,942,096,4423,919,182,3323,922,793,0003,923,000,0003,860,000,000
19744,016,608,8133,995,304,9223,997,677,000
19754,089,083,2334,071,020,4344,070,671,0003,900,000,0004,000,000,000
19764,160,185,0104,146,135,8504,141,445,000
19774,232,084,5784,220,816,7374,213,539,000
19784,304,105,7534,295,664,8254,286,317,000
19794,379,013,9424,371,527,8714,363,144,000
19804,451,362,7354,449,048,7984,439,529,0004,461,000,000
19814,534,410,1254,528,234,6344,514,838,000
19824,614,566,5614,608,962,4184,587,307,000
19834,695,736,7434,691,559,8404,676,388,000
19844,774,569,3914,776,392,8284,756,521,000
19854,856,462,6994,863,601,5174,837,719,0005,000,000,000
19864,940,571,2324,953,376,7104,920,968,000
19875,027,200,4925,045,315,8715,006,672,000
19885,114,557,1675,138,214,6885,093,306,000
19895,201,440,1105,230,000,0005,180,540,000
19905,288,955,9345,320,816,6675,269,029,0005,308,000,000
19915,371,585,9225,408,908,7245,351,922,000
19925,456,136,2785,494,899,5705,435,722,000
19935,538,268,3165,578,865,1095,518,127,000
19945,618,682,1325,661,086,3465,599,396,000
19955,699,202,9855,760,000,0005,741,822,4125,681,575,000
19965,779,440,5935,821,016,7505,762,212,000
19975,857,972,5435,840,000,0005,898,688,3375,842,122,000
19985,935,213,2485,975,303,6575,921,366,000
19996,012,074,9226,051,478,0105,999,622,000
20006,088,571,3836,067,000,0006,127,700,4286,076,558,0006,145,000,0005,750,000,000
20016,165,219,2476,137,000,0006,204,147,0266,154,791,000
20026,242,016,3486,215,000,0006,280,853,8176,231,704,000
20036,318,590,9566,314,000,0006,357,991,7496,308,364,000
20046,395,699,5096,396,000,0006,435,705,5956,374,056,000
20056,473,044,7326,477,000,0006,514,094,6056,462,987,000
20066,551,263,5346,555,000,0006,593,227,9776,540,214,000
20076,629,913,7596,625,000,0006,673,105,9376,616,689,000
20086,709,049,7806,705,000,0006,753,649,2286,694,832,000
20096,788,214,3946,809,972,0006,834,721,9336,764,086,000
20106,858,584,7556,892,319,0006,916,183,482
20116,935,999,4916,986,951,0006,997,998,760
20127,013,871,3137,057,075,0007,080,072,417
20137,092,128,0947,136,796,0007,162,119,434
20147,169,968,1857,238,184,0007,243,784,000
20157,247,892,7887,336,435,0007,349,472,000
20167,325,996,7097,418,151,841

By world region

Population estimates for world regions based on Maddison, in millions.
The row showing total world population includes the average growth rate per year over the period separating each column from the preceding one.
Year110001500160017001820191320002030
Asia168
183
284
379
402
710
978
3,605
4,790
East/Southeast Asia74
88
166
223
216
469
613
1,996
2,417
South Asia75
75
110
135
165
216
326
1,372
2,003
Europe34
40
78
112
127
224
498
742
829
West Asia19
20
18
21
21
25
39
237
370
Africa17
32
47
55
61
74
125
798
1,449
South/Central America6
11
18
9
12
22
81
520
702
North America1
1
2
2
1
11
105
314
413
Oceania0.40.40.60.60.60.4523
28
World2262674385566031,0411,7916,0628,175
World growth p.a.+0.0%+0.1%+0.2%+0.1%+0.5%+0.6%+1.4%+1.0%

When considering population estimates by world region, it is worth noting that population history of the indigenous peoples of the Americas before the 1492 voyage of Christopher Columbus has proven difficult to establish, with many historians arguing for an estimate of 50 million people throughout the Americas, and some estimating that populations may have reached 100 million people or more. It is therefore estimated by some that populations in Mexico, Central, and South America could have reached 37 million by 1492. Additionally, the population estimate of 2 million for North America for the same time period represents the low end of modern estimates, and some estimate the population to have been as high as 18 million.

World Population Estimates, 20 Countries and Regional Totals, 0–1998 AD (in thousands)

Year01000150016001700182018701913195019731998
Austria5007002,0002,5002,5003,3694,5206,7676,9357,5868,078
Belgium3004001,4001,6002,0003,4245,0967,6668,6409,73810,197
Denmark1803606006507001,1551,8882,9834,2695,0225,303
Finland20403004004001,1691,7543,0274,0094,6665,153
France5,0006,50015,00018,50021,47131,24638,44041,46341,83652,11858,805
Germany3,0003,50012,00016,00015,00024,90539,23165,05868,37178,95682,029
Italy7,0005,00010,50013,10013,30020,17627,88837,24847,10554,75157,592
Netherlands2003009501,5001,9002,3553,6156,16410,11413,43815,700
Norway1002003004005009701,7352,4473,2653,9614,432
Sweden2004005507601,2602,5854,1645,6217,0158,1378,851
Switzerland3003006501,0001,2001,8292,6643,8644,6946,4417,130
United Kingdom8002,0003,9426,1708,56521,22631,39345,64950,36356,22359,237
12 Countries Total17,60019,70048,19262,58068,796114,419162,388227,957256,616301,037322,507
Portugal5006001,0001,1002,0003,2974,3536,0048,5128,6349,968
Spain4,5004,0006,8008,2408,77012,20316,20120,26327,86834,81039,371
Other2,1001,1131,2761,8581,8942,9694,5906,78312,06413,90916,553
Total Western Europe24,70025,41357,26873,77881,460132,888187,532261,007305,060358,390388,399
Eastern Europe4,7506,50013,50016,95018,80036,41552,18279,60487,289110,490121,006
Former USSR3,9007,10016,95020,70026,55054,76588,672156,192180,050249,748290,866
United States6801,3002,0001,5001,0009,98140,24197,606152,271212,909270,561
Other Western Offshoots4906608008007501,2495,89213,79523,82339,03652,859
Total Western Offshoots1,1701,9602,8002,3001,75011,23046,133111,401176,094250,945323,420
Mexico2,2004,5007,5002,5004,5006,5879,21914,97028,48557,64398,553
Other Latin America3,4006,90010,0006,1007,55014,63330,75465,545137,352250,807409,070
Total Latin America5,60011,40017,5008,60012,05021,22039,97380,515165,837308,450507,623
Japan3,0007,50015,40018,50027,00031,00034,43751,67283,563108,660126,469
China59,60059,000103,000160,000138,000381,000358,000437,140546,815881,9401,242,700
India75,00075,000110,000135,000165,000209,000253,000303,700359,000580,000975,000
Other Asia36,60041,40055,40065,00071,80089,366119,619185,092392,481677,2141,172,243
Total Asia 171,200175,400268,400360,000374,800679,366730,619925,9321,298,2962,139,1543,389,943
Africa16,50033,00046,00055,00061,00074,20890,466124,697228,342387,645759,954
World230,820268,273437,818555,828603,4101,041,0921,270,0141,791,0202,524,5313,913,4825,907,680