In many energy markets the peak demand occurs after sunset, when solar power is no longer available. In locations where a substantial amount of solar electric capacity has been installed, the amount of power that must be generated from sources other than solar or wind displays a rapid increase around sunset and peaks in the mid-evening hours, producing a graph that resembles the silhouette of a duck. In Hawaii, significant adoption of solar generation has led to the more pronounced curve known as the Nessie curve. Without any form of energy storage, after times of high solar generation generating companies must rapidly increase power output around the time of sunset to compensate for the loss of solar generation, a major concern for grid operators where there is rapid growth of photovoltaics. Storage can fix these issues if it can be implemented. Flywheels have shown to provide excellent frequency regulation. Short term use batteries, at a large enough scale of use, can help to flatten the duck curve and prevent generator use fluctuation and can help to maintain voltage profile. However, cost is a major limiting factor for energy storage as each technique is expensive to produce at scale.
Mitigation strategies
Methods for coping with the rapid increase in demand at sunset reflected in the duck curve, which becomes more serious as the penetration of solar generation grows, include:
*Electric power transmission from the west where the sun is shining to the east where the sun is low
A major challenge is deploying mitigating capacity at a rate that keeps up with the growth of solar energy production. The effects of the duck curve have happened faster than anticipated.
Duck curve in California
The California Independent System Operator has been monitoring and analyzing the Duck Curve and its future expectations for about a half a century now and their biggest finding is the growing gap between morning and evening hours prices relative to midday hours prices. According to their last study, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, found that the wholesale energy market prices over the past six months during the 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. period have increased to $60 per megawatt-hour, compared to about $35 per megawatt-hour in the same time frame in 2016. However, on the other side they have measured a drastic decrease in the midday prices, nearing $15 per megawatt-hour. These high peaks and deep valleys are only showing continued trends of going further apart making this Duck Curve even more prevalent as renewable energy production continues to grow. A crucial part of this curve comes from the Net Load. In certain times of the year, the curves create a “belly” appearance in the midday that then drastically increases portraying an “arch” similar to the neck of a duck, consequently the name “The Duck Chart.” During the midday, large amounts of solar energy are created, which partially contributes to lower demand for additional electricity. Increasing battery storage can mitigate the issues of solar abundance during the day. When excess solar energy is stored during the day and used in the evening, the price disparity between inexpensive midday and expensive evening energy can be reduced. Enough total solar technology exists to power the world, but there is a current lack of infrastructure to store solar energy for later use. An oversupply of energy during low demand coupled with a lack of supply during high demand explains the large disparity between midday and evening energy prices.
