David Spiegelhalter Sir David John Spiegelhalter is a British statistician and Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge and a Fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge . Spiegelhalter is an ISI highly cited researcher . On 27 May 2020 he joined the board of the UK Statistics Authority as a non-executive director for a period of three years.Early life and education Spiegelhalter was born on 16 August 1953 . He attended Barnstaple Grammar School from 1963 to 1970 then studied at the University of Oxford , and University College London , where he gained his Master of Science 1975 and Doctor of Philosophy 1978, supervised by Adrian Smith .Career Spiegelhalter was research assistant in Brunel University in 1976 and then visiting lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley , 1977–78. After his PhD, he was a research assistant for the Royal College of Physicians ; he was based at the University of Nottingham , where his PhD supervisor, Adrian Smith, had been appointed a professor. From 1981 he was at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge. He has been an honorary lecturer at the University of Hong Kong since 1991. He has also been a consultant for GlaxoSmithKline , Novartis and the World Anti-Doping Agency . He played a leading role in the public inquiries into children's heart surgery at the Bristol Royal Infirmary and the murders by Harold Shipman . Between 2007 and 2012 he divided his work between the Cambridge Statistical Laboratory and the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit. He left the MRC in March 2012 and worked full-time at the Statistical Laboratory as the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk until his retirement. He remains chair of the Winton Centre. As of 2010 Spiegelhalter has supervised at least 3 PhD students. , July 2009 In 2012, Spiegelhalter hosted the BBC Four documentary Tails You Win: The Science of Chance which described the application of probability in everyday life . He also presented a 2013 Cambridge Science Festival talk, How to Spot a Shabby Statistic at the Babbage Lecture Theatre in Cambridge. He was elected as President of the Royal Statistical Society , and took up the position on 1 January 2017. In March 2020 Spiegelhalter launched a podcast called Risky Talk where he interviews experts in risk and evidence communication on topics like genetics, nutrition, climate change and immigration .Research Spiegelhalter's research interests are in statistics including Bayesian approach to clinical trials , expert systems and complex modelling and epidemiology. Graphical models of conditional independence. He wrote several papers in the 1980s that showed how probability could be incorporated into expert systems, a problem that seemed intractable at the time. Spiegelhalter showed that while frequentist probability did not lend itself to expert systems, Bayesian probability most certainly did. Statistical software. In the 1990s Spiegelhalter led the Medical Research Council team that developed WinBUGS, a statistical-modelling system allowing hierarchical prior distributions. WinBUGS and its successor OpenBUGS specifies graphical models using acyclic directed graphs whose nodes are random variables, which are updated using Gibbs sampling . Earlier Bayesian software had required that the probability distribution for the observed data be an exponential family and that the prior be its conjugate distribution . Allowing flexible choices of prior distributions simplified hierarchical modelling and helped to promote multilevel models, which became widely used in epidemiology and education. General issues in clinical trials, including cluster randomisation, meta-analysis and ethical monitoring. Monitoring and comparing clinical and public-health outcomes and their associated publication as performance indicators. Public understanding of risk, including promoting concepts such as the micromort and microlife . Media reporting of statistics, risk and probability and the wider conception of uncertainty as going beyond what is measured to model uncertainty, the unknown and the unmeasurable.Honours 1975 Fellow, Royal Statistical Society 1985 Guy Medal in Bronze, Royal Statistical Society 1990 Award for Outstanding Statistical Application, American Statistical Association 1993 Chartered Statistician, Royal Statistical Society 1994 Guy Medal in Silver, Royal Statistical Society 1994 Honorary Doctorate, Aalborg University , Denmark 2005 Elected a Fellow of the Royal Society 2006 Received an OBE in the Queen's Birthday Honours 2006 Appointed Honorary Professor of Biostatistics at University of Cambridge 2009 Weldon Memorial Prize and Medal 2010 Honorary Doctorate of Science , Plymouth University 2013 Honorary Doctorate from Heriot-Watt University 2020 Guy Medal in Gold, Royal Statistical Society Spiegelhalter was knighted in the 2014 Birthday Honours for services to statistics.Media appearances Risky Talk Host of the podcast Panorama - Why Are Gambling Machines Addictive? Climate Change by Numbers Horizon - Should I Eat Meat? The Big Health Dilemma Horizon - - Interviewed by Ben Miller Horizon - To Infinity and Beyond The Joy of Stats''
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