Blue wall (politics)


"Blue wall" is a term used by political pundits to refer to 18 U.S. states and the District of Columbia that the Democratic Party consistently won in presidential elections between 1992 and 2012. George W. Bush, the only Republican president elected during this time, was able to narrowly win the electoral college in 2000 and 2004 only by winning states outside of the blue wall.
During the 2016 presidential election many political pundits speculated that the blue wall made Hillary Clinton a heavy favorite to win the electoral college. However, Republican nominee Donald Trump was able to narrowly win victories in the three blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as an electoral vote from Maine, a fourth blue wall state. He was consequently elected president with 306 electoral votes.
The term "red wall" is less commonly used to refer to states that Republicans have consistently won in previous election cycles. However, due to Barack Obama's significant 2008 win in the electoral college that included many previously Republican states, these states represent significantly fewer electoral votes than the blue wall. These terms refer to the colors that have become associated with the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, in the twenty-first century.

Origin

claims to have coined the term "blue wall" in 2009.
After the 2012 presidential election, Paul Steinhauser called "blue wall the cluster of eastern, Midwest and western states that have traditionally gone Democratic." The earliest description of the forces creating the blue wall comes from a Houston Chronicle blogger, Chris Ladd. A Republican, Ladd wrote in November 2014 that the seemingly impressive Republican win in the 2014 mid-term elections had overshadowed another trend apparent in the results – a demographic and geographic collapse. The blue wall was a Democratic demographic lock on the Electoral College resulting from the Republican Party's narrowing focus on the interests of white, rural, and Southern voters. Ladd's analysis became popular when MSNBC commentator Lawrence O'Donnell featured it on a post-election episode of his show The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell.
A similar "red wall/sea," behind which lie states solidly Republican, has also been posited to exist. But, having fewer votes, it would be theoretically easier for a Democratic presidential candidate to win without breaching it. The Republican party has won just 13 states in each of the last 7 election cycles, totaling 102 electoral votes.

States behind the blue wall

Behind this "blue wall" lay states, many carrying a relatively high number of electoral votes, which appeared to be solidly behind the Democratic Party, at least on the national level, and which a Republican presidential candidate appeared likely to have to write off, seeking a total of 270 electoral votes from other regions. States behind this wall lay generally in the Northeastern United States, and the West Coast of the United States, and included some of the Great Lakes states. In each of the 6 presidential election cycles prior to 2016, the Democratic Party had won 18 of these states, totaling 242 of the necessary 270 votes need to win. The "big three" Democratic stronghold states include California, New York, and Illinois.
States falling behind this blue wall generally included those the Democrats had carried since the 1992 presidential election until the 2016 presidential election that included : California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Vermont, as well as Washington, D.C. ; this is a total of 242 votes. The last time any of these states cast their votes for the Republican presidential candidate before 2016 was when George H. W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis in 1988 and carried California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, Maine, Delaware, and Vermont. New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Oregon, Hawaii, and Rhode Island have voted Democratic since Ronald Reagan's landslide in 1984. One of these states, Minnesota, has not been carried by a Republican presidential candidate since 1972.

Red wall/sea

The states which Republicans have won in the last 7 cycles include Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, and Wyoming, giving a total of 102 votes. States with a 6-out-of-7 Republican record include Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Indiana, and Montana for a total of 158 electoral votes. Much of the Southern United States are probably safely Republican as well, as 6 other states from that general region have not voted for a Democrat since southerner Bill Clinton in 1996, and the Deep South is nearly solidly Republican in their senators and governors. In a Seventh Party System, it is possible many other states could join the red wall/sea, especially states such as Kentucky and West Virginia, both of which have gone to the GOP in the last five presidential elections, with Kentucky voting Republican by at least 15 percentage points in each election and West Virginia giving Donald Trump his second-largest victory margin in 2016.

Demise of the blue wall

The Democrats' "lock" on these states had been called into question between 2012 and 2016, as several had been competitive in recent elections, and many had Republicans currently holding elected statewide office, generally either senator or governor. Blue wall states with a Republican senator included Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine. Those with a Republican governor included Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont. In addition to these 18 states, three others, Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire, had only voted for the Republican once in the same 6 election cycles, giving their votes to George W. Bush in either 2000 or 2004, whilst Oregon saw Bush lose by only 7,000 votes in 2000. If included in the total, the votes behind the blue wall numbered 257, just 13 short of what is needed to win. In 2016, the blue wall showed some cracks, and went down from 242 electoral votes to 195. Some in the mainstream media did, however, suspect the Democrats might lose Pennsylvania.
Nate Silver had criticized the idea of the blue wall, pointing to a larger "red wall/red sea" of states that voted Republican from 1968 to 1988. He argued that the blue wall simply represented a "pretty good run" in elections, and that relatively minor gains in the popular vote could flip some of its states to Republican. This was seen in the 2016 election, where voters from manufacturing states traditionally behind the blue wall voted for Donald Trump, providing him the victory in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine's 2nd congressional district.

In presidential elections

Presidential votes in blue wall states since 1876:
YearCaliforniaConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaHawaiiIllinoisMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaNew JerseyNew YorkOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandVermontWashingtonWisconsin
1876HayesTildenTildenNo electionNo electionHayesHayesTildenHayesHayesHayesTildenTildenHayesHayesHayesHayesNo electionHayes
1880HancockGarfieldHancockNo electionNo electionGarfieldGarfieldHancockGarfieldGarfieldGarfieldHancockGarfieldGarfieldGarfieldGarfieldGarfieldNo electionGarfield
1884BlaineClevelandClevelandNo electionNo electionBlaineBlaineClevelandBlaineBlaineBlaineClevelandClevelandBlaineBlaineBlaineBlaineNo electionBlaine
1888HarrisonClevelandClevelandNo electionNo electionHarrisonHarrisonClevelandHarrisonHarrisonHarrisonClevelandHarrisonHarrisonHarrisonHarrisonHarrisonNo electionHarrison
1892ClevelandClevelandClevelandNo electionNo electionClevelandHarrisonClevelandHarrisonHarrisonHarrisonClevelandClevelandHarrisonHarrisonHarrisonHarrisonHarrisonCleveland
1896McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyNo electionNo electionMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyBryanMcKinley
1900McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyNo electionNo electionMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinley
1904RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltNo electionNo electionRooseveltRooseveltParkerRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRoosevelt
1908TaftTaftTaftNo electionNo electionTaftTaftBryanTaftTaftTaftTaftTaftTaftTaftTaftTaftTaftTaft
1912RooseveltWilsonWilsonNo electionNo electionWilsonWilsonWilsonWilsonRooseveltRooseveltWilsonWilsonWilsonRooseveltWilsonTaftRooseveltWilson
1916WilsonHughesHughesNo electionNo electionHughesHughesWilsonHughesHughesHughesHughesHughesHughesHughesHughesHughesWilsonHughes
1920HardingHardingHardingNo electionNo electionHardingHardingHardingHardingHardingHardingHardingHardingHardingHardingHardingHardingHardingHarding
1924CoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeNo electionNo electionCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeCoolidgeLa Follette
1928HooverHooverHooverNo electionNo electionHooverHooverHooverSmithHooverHooverHooverHooverHooverHooverSmithHooverHooverHoover
1932RooseveltHooverHooverNo electionNo electionRooseveltHooverRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltHooverRooseveltHooverRooseveltRoosevelt
1936RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltNo electionNo electionRooseveltLandonRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltLandonRooseveltRoosevelt
1940RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltNo electionNo electionRooseveltWillkieRooseveltRooseveltWillkieRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltWillkieRooseveltRoosevelt
1944RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltNo electionNo electionRooseveltDeweyRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltDeweyRooseveltDewey
1948TrumanDeweyDeweyNo electionNo electionTrumanDeweyDeweyTrumanDeweyTrumanDeweyDeweyDeweyDeweyTrumanDeweyTrumanTruman
1952EisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerNo electionNo electionEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhower
1956EisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerNo electionNo electionEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhowerEisenhower
1960NixonKennedyKennedyNo electionKennedyKennedyNixonKennedyKennedyKennedyKennedyKennedyKennedyNixonKennedyKennedyNixonNixonNixon
1964JohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnsonJohnson
1968NixonHumphreyNixonHumphreyHumphreyNixonHumphreyHumphreyHumphreyHumphreyHumphreyNixonHumphreyNixonHumphreyHumphreyNixonHumphreyNixon
1972NixonNixonNixonMcGovernNixonNixonNixonNixonMcGovernNixonNixonNixonNixonNixonNixonNixonNixonNixonNixon
1976FordFordCarterCarterCarterFordFordCarterCarterFordCarterFordCarterFordCarterCarterFordFordCarter
1980ReaganReaganReaganCarterCarterReaganReaganCarterReaganReaganCarterReaganReaganReaganReaganCarterReaganReaganReagan
1984ReaganReaganReaganMondaleReaganReaganReaganReaganReaganReaganMondaleReaganReaganReaganReaganReaganReaganReaganReagan
1988BushBushBushDukakisDukakisBushBushBushDukakisBushDukakisBushDukakisDukakisBushDukakisBushDukakisDukakis
1992ClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClinton
1996ClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClinton
2000GoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGoreGore
2004KerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerryKerry
2008ObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObama
2012ObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObama
2016ClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonClintonTrumpClintonClintonClintonClintonTrumpClintonClintonClintonTrump
YearCaliforniaConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaHawaiiIllinoisMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaNew JerseyNew YorkOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandVermontWashingtonWisconsin

; Key
Democratic Party nominee
Republican Party nominee
Third-party nominee

Bold denotes candidates elected as president