43rd Quebec general election


The 43rd Quebec general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 3, 2022 to elect the members of the National Assembly of Quebec. Under the province's fixed election date law, passed in 2013, "the general election following the end of a Legislature shall be held on the first Monday of October of the fourth calendar year following the year that includes the last day of the previous Legislature", setting the date for October 3, 2022. However, the act does not fetter the discretion of the Lieutenant Governor of Quebec to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

Background

The 2018 general election resulted in a victory for the Coalition Avenir Québec led by François Legault won 74 of 125 seats, giving the party a majority and unseating the Philippe Couillard's Liberal Party after a single term in office. Couillard would subsequently resign as Liberal leader and be replaced on an interim basis by Pierre Arcand until his successor is chosen.
Both the Parti Québécois and Québec solidaire won 10 seats each, less than the 12 seats needed for official party status; Parti Québécois leader Jean-François Lisée, defeated in his bid for re-election, would subsequently resign as party leader and be replaced on an interim basis by Pascal Bérubé until his successor is chosen.

Current standings

Summary of the current standings of the
National Assembly of Quebec
! rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="text-align:left;"|Party
! rowspan="2" style="text-align:left;"|Party leader
! colspan="2" style="text-align:center;"|Seats
!125 !!125

Timeline

2018

was elected on a promise to reform the electoral system within a year of his victory. On 25 September 2019, Minister of Justice Sonia Lebel presented Bill 39, An Act to establish a new electoral system which aims to replace the First-part-the-post electoral system in favour of a mixed-member proportional representation system. The Bill has not yet been debated in parliament.
According to the bill, the National Assembly would keep 125 members, 80 of which would be elected by receiving a plurality of votes in a single-member district, while the remaining 45 members would be chosen relative to a new party list vote, according to their order in the regional party list. All 16 regions of Québec would be guaranteed at least one list MP. The system would thus be similar to the Additional member system of the Scottish and Welsh Assemblies created in 1999.
However, the reform wouldn't affect the 43rd general election likely to be held in 2022, as the bill ties the reform with a popular approval in a referendum, to be held on the same day as the general election. Should this referendum be successful, then the first legislature to be elected under mixed-member proportional would be the 44th, in October 2026 at the latest.

Opinion polls

;Voting Intentions in Quebec since the 2018 Election
The first dot is the 2018 election results, and the last dot is the latest qc125.com polling average.
Polling organisationLast date of pollingSourceCAQLiberalPQQSOtherSample sizeMargin of errorLead
EKOSJuly 3, 202059198951,870±2.540
Innovative Research GroupJune 1, 202038281699 25710
LegerMay 25, 2020542211851,20332
Angus ReidMay 24, 202050221110773928
Innovative Research GroupMay 5, 2020353217862573
EKOSMarch 27, 202051.919.214.410.44578±4.1%32.7
Angus ReidFebruary 28, 2020362217169638±3.7%14
LegerJanuary 15, 20204223191151,202±2.8%19
LegerNovember 25, 20193827191061,000±3.1%11
Mainstreet47.821.710.514.55.6871±3.32%26.1
ForumJune 12, 20194616131961,407–71±2.5%24
LegerMay 21, 2019462314134979±3%23
Mainstreet45.322.310.414.77.2940±3.20%23.0
Leger4421151551,014±3.08%23
Leger4222181531,007±3.09%20
Mainstreet44.526.18.915.84.8979±3.13%18.4
Mainstreet39.422.814.119.04.7896±3.27%16.6
2018 election37.4224.8217.0616.104.604,033,53812.6