2021 Senedd election


The next Senedd election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021 to elect 60 members to the Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament. It will be the sixth general election since the Assembly was established in 1999. The election is due to be held alongside the 2021 United Kingdom local elections and Scottish Parliament election.
It will be the first election in which 16 and 17 year olds and legally resident foreign nationals are allowed to vote in Wales, the largest extension of the franchise in Wales since 1969. Both changes were a result of the Senedd and Elections Act 2020.
Eight parties had Assembly Members /Members of the Senedd in the fifth Assembly/Parliament: Welsh Labour led by First Minister Mark Drakeford, the Welsh Conservatives led by Paul Davies, Plaid Cymru led by Adam Price, the Brexit Party led by Mark Reckless, the UK Independence Party led by Neil Hamilton, the Welsh Liberal Democrats led by Jane Dodds, the Welsh National Party led by Neil McEvoy, and the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party led by Richard Suchorzewski.

Electoral system

In elections for the Senedd, each voter has two votes in the additional member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.
In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning a Member of the Senedd cannot also be an MP.
This will be the first election where 16 and 17 year olds can vote, following the introduction of a new law in January 2020.

Background

The 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom was the last of its kind. The newly formed Brexit Party came out on top in Wales. Plaid Cymru, who support full Welsh independence, came second, marking the first time it had beaten Labour in a Wales-wide election. The Brexit Party also formed a parliamentary group in the Assembly made up of the 4 ex-UK Independence Party members, led by Mark Reckless.
A snap general election was called for 12 December 2019. Welsh Labour suffered an 8% drop in their vote and they were completely wiped out of North Wales, apart from in Alyn and Deeside. Labour ended up losing 6 parliamentary seats to the Welsh Conservatives in Boris Johnson's victory. These seats included Bridgend, which has been represented on the assembly level by former First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones since the 1999 election. The Conservatives also picked up Brecon and Radnorshire from the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds.
On 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union. This followed a referendum on the matter in which Wales voted to leave the EU. South Wales has been highlighted by many as evidence that Brexit was a cross-party issue, as those areas typically vote overwhelmingly for Labour. Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, and Caerphilly all voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit, but are all represented in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by Labour MPs.
Plaid campaigned for a remain vote in the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. Plaid later supported, during the final stages of Brexit process, a second referendum on the matter. Plaid argued that there should be a referendum on Welsh independence after Brexit, so that Wales could apply for EU membership. A June 2020 YouGov/ITV Cymru poll concluded that 25% were in favour of independence and 54% opposed. The same poll found that 22% of respondants wanted no devolution in Wales, and that 25% were for abolition of the Senedd, with 48% opposed to abolition.
Vaughan Gething said to ITV Wales on 17 May 2020 that it is "possible" that 2021 Senedd Election may not be allowed to happen, because of the uncertainty of the Covid-19 pandemic.
It was announced on 29 June 2020 that the First Minister has set up a group with representatives from all of the main parties to look at the arrangements that might have to be in place if Covid-19 restrictions are still required. It will look at campaigning and voting, gathering "views over the summer so that by September, any changes the group feels would be beneficial can be considered and taken forward".

Retiring members

The following MSs will not run for re-election:

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 10% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Labour targets

Plaid Cymru targets

Conservative targets

Liberal Democrat targets

Constituency nominations

NB: MSs in office before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.
ConstituencyConservativeLabourPlaid CymruLib DemBrexit PartyUKIPGreenOthers
Constituency
AberavonDavid Rees
AberconwyJanet Finch-SaundersAaron WynneJason Edwards
Alyn and DeesideJack Sargeant
ArfonSiân Gwenllian
Blaenau GwentAlun DaviesPeredur Owen Griffiths
Brecon and RadnorshireKirsty Williams
BridgendSarah Murphy
CaerphillyHefin DavidDelyth Jewell
Cardiff CentralJenny RathboneWiliam Rees
Cardiff NorthJoel WilliamsJulie MorganRhys Taylor
Cardiff South and PenarthVaughan GethingNasir AdamAlex Wilson
Cardiff WestMark DrakefordRhys ab OwenHeath Marshall
Carmarthen East and DinefwrAdam PriceLeena Farhat
Carmarthen West and South PembrokeshireRhys ThomasAlistair Cameron
CeredigionElin Jones
Clwyd SouthKen Skates
Clwyd WestDarren MillarElin Walker Jones
Cynon ValleyVikki Howells
DelynHannah Blythyn
Dwyfor MeirionnyddMabon ap GwynforSteve Churchman
GowerRebecca EvansJohn Davies
IslwynRhianon PassmoreRhys Mills
LlanelliLee WatersHelen Mary JonesChris Passmore
Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyDawn Bowden
MonmouthNick RamsayJo Watkins
MontgomeryshireRussell George
NeathJeremy MilesSioned Williams
Newport EastJohn GriffithsJohn Miller
Newport WestJayne BryantMike Hamilton
OgmoreHuw Irranca-DaviesLuke Fletcher
PontypriddMick AntoniwHeledd Fychan
Preseli PembrokeshirePaul DaviesCris Tomos
RhonddaElizabeth Buffy WilliamsLeanne Wood
Swansea EastMike Hedges
Swansea WestJulie JamesDai LloydChloe Hutchinson
TorfaenLynne Neagle
Vale of ClwydGareth DaviesAnn Jones
Vale of GlamorganJane Hutt
WrexhamLesley GriffithsCarrie Harper
Ynys MônRhun ap Iorwerth

Opinion polling

The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.