2019–20 Croatian presidential election


Presidential elections were held in Croatia on 22 December 2019. As no candidate received a majority of all votes, a second round took place on 5 January 2020 between the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round. They were the seventh presidential elections since the first direct ones were held in 1992.
The decision to call the election was made by the Croatian Government during its session on 14 November 2019. Potential candidates were required to gather at least 10,000 signatures from Croatian citizens who have reached the age of 18 in order for their candidacy to become official and for their name to appear on the ballot. They were allocated a time frame of 12 days to accomplish this and thus had until midnight local time on 3 December 2019 to present their signatures to the State Electoral Commission. A total of twelve candidates submitted signatures by the deadline and the commission then proceeded to verify the signatures within the following 48 hours, presenting a final list of eleven approved candidates on 5 December 2019.
In the first round of the election, which was held on 22 December 2019, former prime minister Zoran Milanović finished in first place with a relative majority of 29.55% of all votes cast. He was followed closely by incumbent president Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, who received 26.65% of the vote, and by Miroslav Škoro, who acquired 24.45% of the vote. As no candidate managed to reach the required percentage of the vote to win outright in the first round, a run-off election took place on 5 January 2020 between the two candidates with the most votes in the first round: Milanović and Grabar-Kitarović. Zoran Milanović won the second round with 52.66% of the vote and was thus elected the 5th President of Croatia since its independence in 1991, while Grabar-Kitarović became the second Croatian president not to have been reelected for a second term, after Ivo Josipović. Furthermore, the number of votes received by Zoran Milanović, in regard to both the first and the second round of the election, is the lowest of any victorious presidential candidate to date. On the other hand, the number of votes and the percentage of the vote acquired by Grabar-Kitarović in the first round is the lowest for any Croatian president.

Background

The incumbent president of Croatia, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, took office on 19 February 2015 and her term is due to end on 18 February 2020. The presidential term of Zoran Milanović is due to begin on 19 February 2020 and end on 18 February 2025.

Electoral system

The president of Croatia is directly elected by secret ballot to a term of 5 years using a two-round system. The Constitution of Croatia requires that a presidential election be held no sooner than 60 days and no later than 30 days before the expiration of the incumbent president's term. An absolute majority of all votes cast is required to win in the first round. If no candidate acquires such a majority, a second-round is to be held in 14 days' time, with the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round taking part. The candidate who acquires the highest number of votes in the second round is declared the winner. If one of the candidates who has won a high enough number of votes to take part in the second round were to abandon his candidacy or die, the candidate with the next highest number of votes in the first round will earn the right to take part in the second round. Furthermore, Croatian presidents may serve a maximum of two 5-year terms in their lifetime.
In order for a potential candidate to be legally allowed to contest the election and have their name placed on the ballot, they must gather at least 10,000 signatures from eligible voters, with every such signatory being permitted to give his signature of support to only one potential candidate. The time frame for collecting the said number of signatures is set at 12 days, and after the expiry of this period potential candidates must submit them to the State Electoral Commission for verification.

Candidates

On 5 December, the State Electoral Commission published a list of 11 candidates.

Withdrawn bids

These individuals failed to submit the required number of endorsement signatures.
These individuals have been the subject of presidential speculation, but have publicly denied or recanted interest in running for president.

First round

Endorsements

Debates

After official validation of candidates by the State Electoral Commission, the first debate was a confrontation between Katarina Peović and Anto Đapić, the most left-wing and the most-right wing candidate respectively, which was filmed by and broadcast on N1 television on 5 December 2019.
On 17 December, the Croatian Radiotelevision held the general debate with all 11 candidates participated. It was the only debate where all first-round candidates participated.

Second round

Endorsements

Debates

On 30 December, RTL held the first general debate with two second round candidates participated. Croatian Radiotelevision held the second debate on 2 January 2020. The third and final general debate was held on Nova TV on 3 January.

Opinion polling

First round

Polls conducted after official start of campaign
DatePolling FirmGrabar-KitarovićMilanovićŠkoroKolakušićJuričanOreškovićPernarPeovićKovačĐapićBabićUndecided / noneLead
DatePolling FirmUndecided / noneLead
25,6328,6924,266,234,773,392,781,111,070,370,45-3,06
24,224,318,05,53,32,83,41,42,31,10,013,60,1
20 Dec 201927,926,719,36,81,82,93,10,92,20,40,27,71,2
19 Dec 201928,326,620,77,61,52,42,80,92,60,40,45,91,7
19 Dec 201925,326,023,86,11,31,01,21,10,91,20,411,70,7
11 Dec 201924,125,222,510,61,21,42,50,91,11,80,28,51,1
10 Dec 201926,825,421,010,60,92,61,90,91,50,40,37,91,4
7 Dec 201926,029,021,911,0--------3,0
6 Dec 201927,424,023,08,21,21,32,90,22,60,20,58,03,4

Second round

Polls conducted after first round
DateAgencyMilanovićUndecided/
Neither		Lead
DateAgencyUndecided/
Neither		Lead
5 Jan 202053,2246,78-6,44
3 Jan 20204542133
3 Jan 202050,749,3N/A1,4
31 Dec 201940,038,921,21,1
24 Dec 201948,441,110,47,3


Hypothetical polling		--------------

Polls conducted after official start of campaign

Results and analysis

The first round of the election took place on 22 December 2019, with former Social Democratic Prime Minister Zoran Milanović winning by a plurality of 29.55% of the vote, ahead of conservative incumbent President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, who received 26.65% of the vote. The conservative folk musician and former Member of Parliament Miroslav Škoro, who was running as an independent candidate, narrowly failed to reach the run-off election, managing to attract the support of 24.45% of voters. This marked the first time in Croatian history that the incumbent president did not receive the highest number of votes in the first round. Also, Grabar-Kitarović attained both the lowest number of votes and the lowest percentage of votes of any Croatian president competing in either of the two rounds of elections. Milanović received both the lowest number of votes and the lowest percentage of the vote of any first-place candidate in the first round of a presidential election. Škoro received the highest number of votes for a third-placed candidate since Mate Granić in the 2000 elections and the highest-ever percentage of the vote for a candidate who did not advance to the run-off. Milanović received a plurality of the vote in Croatia's three largest cities; 33.02% in Zagreb, 30.79% in Split and 41.87% in Rijeka, and finished second in the fourth largest city, Osijek, which was won by Škoro. Grabar-Kitarović came in second in Split and Rijeka, and third in Zagreb and Osijek.
A run-off was held between Milanović and Grabar-Kitarović on 5 January 2020. Milanović won by just over 104,000 votes, becoming the fifth President of Croatia since independence and the second to have been officially nominated by the Social Democratic Party, after Ivo Josipović. Furthermore, Milanović received a majority of the vote in seven counties and in the City of Zagreb, while Grabar-Kitarović defeated him among voters living in thirteen counties and among the members of the Croatian diaspora. However, Milanović defeated Grabar-Kitarović in all four major cities: Zagreb, Split, Rijeka and Osijek.

By county

First round

Second round

Maps

First round

Second round

Voter demographics

Ipsos Puls exit polls for the first round of the election suggested the following demographic breakdown:
OWIKI.org. Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License.