2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election


The 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. It occurred concurrently with a Senate election in the state, elections to the state’s U.S. House seats, and various other elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker sought re-election to a third term, and was challenged by Democratic candidate and then-Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, as well as Libertarian Phil Anderson and independent Maggie Turnbull. Evers, along with his running mate Mandela Barnes, managed to defeat Walker and Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in a closely fought and widely watched race, ending unified Republican control of the state. This was the only state in the 2018 United States gubernatorial elections to elect a Democratic governor while voting more Republican than the national average.
The result was considered ”too close to call” on election night, with Walker and Evers being separated by a mere few hundred votes for much of the night as counties reported their results. Shortly after midnight on November 7th, Milwaukee County reported around 46,000 previously uncounted ballots. From those late ballots, Evers received 38,674 votes, or 84% of the total, and Walker 7,181, giving Evers a decisive lead. The race was called for him shortly after.

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Results

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Democratic primary

Governor

The primary election for the Democratic nomination featured a crowded field of candidates. The race was ultimately won by Tony Evers with around 40% of the vote.

Candidates

Nominated

Polling

An asterisk denotes that a candidate withdrew before the primary but remains on the ballot.

Results

Lieutenant Governor

, a former state representative from Milwaukee, defeated opponent Kurt Kober by a 2 to 1 margin for the nomination, becoming the first African American to be nominated by a major party for a Wisconsin gubernatorial ticket.

Candidates

Nominated

Libertarian convention

Governor

Nominee

Lieutenant Governor

Nominee

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Independent candidates

Governor

Despite the fact that Scott Walker had won three prior races for Governor in 2010, 2012, and 2014 by fairly comfortable margins, his bid for a third term was ultimately complicated by his rising unpopularity due to his policies concerning public education and infrastructure, as well as a deal his administration made with Taiwanese company Foxconn in 2017 to create jobs in the state in exchange for around $4.5 billion in taxpayer subsidies. In 2018, the deal resulted in around $90 million of funding for roads being diverted to a stretch of I-94 that was set to be near a future Foxconn plant from the rest of state. The poor condition of many roads around the state as well as the lack of work being done to redo them prompted a campaign where potholes were being labeled as “Scott”-holes.
Walker’s approval ratings were hobbled further by the relative unpopularity of Republican U.S. President Donald Trump in Wisconsin. Walker himself sounded the alarm on this several times in early 2018 after Democrats won two special elections to the Wisconsin State Senate in typically Republican districts and an election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. In April of 2018, Walker warned that Wisconsin was “at risk of a blue wave“ in November. The Walker campaign generally focused on promoting the popular parts of his record, such as a freeze on tuition at public universities and record low unemployment.
The result was expected to be close, with a record $93 million spent on the race by the two major campaigns and special interest groups from in and out of the state. In the end, Walker was ultimately defeated by Democrat Tony Evers by a slightly more than 1% margin, as Democrats swept every statewide race up for election.

Predictions

;Notes

Polling

Hypothetical polling------

;with Kelda Roys

Results

Evers won the election by a 1.09% margin.

Results by County


! style="text-align:left;"|Dane
! style="text-align:left;"|Dodge
! style="text-align:left;"|Door
! style="text-align:left;"|Douglas
! style="text-align:left;"|Dunn
! style="text-align:left;"|Eau Claire
! style="text-align:left;"|Florence
! style="text-align:left;"|Fond du Lac
! style="text-align:left;"|Forest
! style="text-align:left;"|Grant
! style="text-align:left;"|Green
! style="text-align:left;"|Green Lake
! style="text-align:left;"|Iowa
! style="text-align:left;"|Iron
! style="text-align:left;"|Jackson
! style="text-align:left;"|Jefferson
! style="text-align:left;"|Juneau
! style="text-align:left;"|Kenosha
! style="text-align:left;"|Kewaunee
! style="text-align:left;"|La Crosse
! style="text-align:left;"|Lafayette
! style="text-align:left;"|Langlade
! style="text-align:left;"|Lincoln
! style="text-align:left;"|Manitowoc
! style="text-align:left;"|Marathon
! style="text-align:left;"|Marinette
! style="text-align:left;"|Marquette
! style="text-align:left;"|Menominee
! style="text-align:left;"|Milwaukee
! style="text-align:left;"|Monroe
! style="text-align:left;"|Oconto
! style="text-align:left;"|Oneida
! style="text-align:left;"|Outagamie
! style="text-align:left;"|Ozaukee
! style="text-align:left;"|Pepin
! style="text-align:left;"|Pierce
! style="text-align:left;"|Polk
! style="text-align:left;"|Portage
! style="text-align:left;"|Price
! style="text-align:left;"|Racine
! style="text-align:left;"|Richland
! style="text-align:left;"|Rock
! style="text-align:left;"|Rusk
! style="text-align:left;"|Sauk
! style="text-align:left;"|Sawyer
! style="text-align:left;"|Shawano
! style="text-align:left;"|Sheboygan
! style="text-align:left;"|St. Croix
! style="text-align:left;"|Taylor
! style="text-align:left;"|Trempealeau
! style="text-align:left;"|Vernon
! style="text-align:left;"|Vilas
! style="text-align:left;"|Walworth
! style="text-align:left;"|Washburn
! style="text-align:left;"|Washington
! style="text-align:left;"|Waukesha
! style="text-align:left;"|Waupaca
! style="text-align:left;"|Waushara
! style="text-align:left;"|Winnebago
! style="text-align:left;"|Wood

Aftermath

Despite the close result, Scott Walker was unable to request a recount due to a law he had signed himself two years prior, which requires the margin of difference to be within 1%.

Lame duck legislative session

Early in December 2018, a special legislative session was called by Walker to pass a series of bills to limit the powers of Governor-elect Evers, as well as incoming Democratic State attorney general Josh Kaul who had defeated incumbent Brad Schimel.
Other bills being considered included restrictions on early voting and the passage of Medicaid work requirements, which Walker had previously held off on due to the election. A similar law restricting early voting that was passed several years prior had been ruled as unconstitutional.
The bills were widely denounced by Democrats and others as a “power grab.” Congresswoman Gwen Moore described the move as a “coup” that “hijacked the voters’ will.” Walker and other Republicans meanwhile argued that the bills were necessary ”checks on power” and that they did not actually strip any real powers from the executive. Lawsuits were filed by Evers and various labor unions almost immediately after Walker signed the bills into law.
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