2018 United States Senate election in Arizona


The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona and replace incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake, who did not run for reelection to a second term. It was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, as well as various other state and local elections.
The candidate filing deadline was May 30, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 28, 2018. Martha McSally won the Republican Party primary, and Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic Party primary. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot but withdrew and endorsed Sinema. This election featured an all-female ballot for U.S. Senator, with three women on the ballot. Write-in candidates included Democrat Sheila Bilyeu, Libertarian Party candidate Barry Hess, Republican Robert Kay, and Jonathan Ringham of The Old Republic, among others. On the night of the election, McSally held a narrow lead of about one percent. But about a million mail-in and early ballots had to be counted, and Sinema took the lead the next day, in an example of blue shift. The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018, and McSally conceded that day.
Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988 when former Democratic senator Dennis DeConcini last ran for and won reelection to his third and final term in this seat. McSally [|was appointed] to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, which was being held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl following the death of Senator John McCain.

Background

, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state has remained in the Republican camp, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees. The last Democrat to win a Senate election in Arizona was Dennis DeConcini in 1988.
Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018. Flake had said in March 2017 that he was running for reelection, but he was considered vulnerable due to low approval ratings, a tenuous relationship with President Trump, and a primary challenge from former State Senator Kelli Ward. Additionally, his margin of victory in 2012 was only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.

Republican primary

Candidates

On the ballot

Polling

Hypothetical polling----------

;with Jay Heiler

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

On the ballot

Polling

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Candidates

Declared

  • Angela Green,

    Removed

  • Eve Reyes-Aguirre, activist

    Results

General election

Debates

  • , October 15, 2018

    Predictions

Endorsements

Fundraising

Polling

Hypothetical polling-------

;with Kelli Ward

Results

Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.
Sinema defeated McSally largely by winning in heavily populated Maricopa County, home of Phoenix, which used to be a Republican stronghold but has since trended more Democratic in recent years. Sinema also won in heavily populated Pima County, home to Tucson, where she beat McSally with over 56% of the vote. Sinema also performed well in Coconino County, home of Flagstaff. McSally did do well in many rural areas of the state. This is the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.

By county

Voter Demographics

Aftermath

On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat, left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself was appointed after the death of John McCain. Initially, Kyl said that he would serve only until the new Congress was sworn in January 2019. Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019, marking the first time in history that Arizona will be represented by two women in the United States Senate and making it the second state to be represented by two women from different parties. Sinema and McSally are only the second pair of Senators from the same state in history to serve together after running against each other the prior year; a first such instance occurred in Oregon in 1996-1997. Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected. Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment is only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress and a special election for her seat will be held in November 2020 to determine who will finish what remains of McCain's term.
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