2018 New Brunswick general election
The 2018 New Brunswick general election was held on September 24, 2018, to elect the 49 members of the 59th New Brunswick Legislature, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.
Two smaller parties — the People's Alliance and the Greens — made breakthroughs, winning three seats each, and potentially holding the balance of power. The People's Alliance entered the legislature for the first time, while the Greens increased their seat count from one. This marked the first time since the 1991 election that four parties won representation in the legislature. The election was also contested by the provincial New Democrats, newcomers KISS NB, and eight independents.
This is the first election since 1920 that did not return a majority for any party. The Progressive Conservatives won the most seats, with 22, but incumbent Liberal Premier Brian Gallant, whose party secured only 21 seats despite winning the popular vote by six percentage points, indicated that he would seek the confidence of the legislature and attempt to form a minority government.
On September 25, Gallant met with the Lieutenant Governor Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau and received permission to continue in office. On November 2, Gallant's minority government was defeated in a non-confidence vote. On November 9, Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs was sworn in as premier with a minority government.
Timeline
- September 22, 2014 – The New Brunswick Liberal Association, led by Brian Gallant, won a narrow majority government, defeating incumbent Premier David Alward's Progressive Conservatives, which became the second single-term government in New Brunswick's history.
- September 23, 2014 - Alward announces his resignation as Progressive Conservative leader.
- October 18, 2014 - Bruce Fitch became interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
- December 10, 2014 - The NDP executive rejects Cardy's resignation as leader, urging him to continue and offering him a salary as he has been working as leader on a volunteer basis.
- October 22, 2016 - Blaine Higgs becomes the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party in a leadership election.
- January 1, 2017 - Dominic Cardy resigns as leader of the NDP, and as a party member. He subsequently joins the PCs as Chief of Staff to Leader Blaine Higgs.
- January 8, 2017 - Rosaire L'Italien is chosen as interim leader of the NDP by the party's executive.
- August 10, 2017 - Jennifer McKenzie is acclaimed as the new leader of the NDP.
Summary of seat changes
Results
! colspan=2 rowspan=2 | Political party! rowspan=2 | Party leader
! colspan=5 | MLAs
! colspan=4 | Votes
! Candidates
!2014
!Dissol.
!2018
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!% where
running
Results by region
Detailed analysis
Aftermath
On election night, Higgs claimed victory, saying his team had received a mandate; however, Gallant did not resign, instead stating his intent to remain in office by securing support on a vote-by-vote basis. The following day, Gallant met with Lieutenant Governor Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau and received permission to continue in office and attempt to seek confidence of the legislature. On September 27, Higgs met with Roy-Vienneau, and was told that if Gallant was unable to secure the confidence of the House, he would be called on to form government; shortly afterwards, Higgs called on Gallant to either resign or immediately recall the legislature.In the immediate aftermath of the election, both Kris Austin of the People's Alliance and David Coon of the Green Party were noncommittal in their support: Austin pledged to work with any party willing to work with him, but said the party won't sacrifice its "values and ideals" to do so; while Coon said his caucus would take time to figure out how they would align themselves, but would not be able to work with anyone uncommitted to rights for linguistic minorities or combatting climate change. Gallant opted to pursue a partnership with the Green Party, ruling out any arrangement with the PCs or PA because they don't share Liberal "values". Higgs initially ruled out any formal agreements with other parties, but later said that a four-year agreement like in British Columbia would be ideal for stability.
Austin agreed to support to a Progressive Conservative government for 18 months, though no formal agreement was made. Coon said his party would negotiate with both the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives. On October 10, Coon announced that the Green Party would not formally side with either party, and would base their votes on their own "declaration of intent". Accordingly, Coon said that their support for the throne speech depends on its "merits", and that his caucus would be free to vote their own way on the speech.
The results drew notice elsewhere in Canada. Parti Québécois leader Jean-François Lisée described the results as "an advertisement for our proposal for proportional representation." Andrew Weaver, leader of the Green Party of British Columbia, suggested that Coon should make an agreement with the Progressive Conservatives. The Globe and Mail published an editorial calling for electoral reform, as did National Post columnist Andrew Coyne.
On November 1, Gallant's Liberal minority government was defeated by a non confidence vote by the opposition Progressive Conservatives and People's Alliance. On November 9, Blaine Higgs was sworn in as premier.
Opinion polls
| Polling Firm | Last Day of Polling | Link | Liberal | PC | NDP | Green | PA |
| Forum Research | September 23, 2018 | 35.8 | 29.4 | 3.6 | 13.8 | 16.4 | |
| Mainstreet Research | 35.2 | 28.8 | 3.2 | 16.0 | 14.8 | ||
| Nanos Research | 37.4 | 30.2 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 12.0 | ||
| Forum Research | 37 | 32 | 4 | 11 | 15 | ||
| Leger Research | 41 | 32 | 8 | 8 | 10 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 45 | 33 | 6 | 10 | 5 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 50 | 30 | 7 | 7 | 6 | ||
| MQO Research | 40 | 32 | 9 | 10 | |||
| Mainstreet Research | 38.1 | 39.4 | 6.6 | 8.9 | |||
| Corporate Research Associates | 45 | 31 | 13 | 7 | 4 | ||
| MQO Research | 35 | 43 | 7 | 11 | 4 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 43 | 30 | 13 | 11 | 3 | ||
| MQO Research | 46 | 37 | 5 | 9 | 3 | ||
| Mainstreet Research | 41.1 | 39.7 | 9.3 | 9.9 | |||
| Corporate Research Associates | 47 | 28 | 11 | 9 | 3 | ||
| MQO Research | 41 | 36 | 12 | 7 | |||
| Corporate Research Associates | 47 | 32 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| MQO Research | 45 | 35 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| Mainstreet Research | 48 | 29 | 8 | 16 | 0 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 46 | 33 | 11 | 6 | 3 | ||
| MQO Research | 43 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 51 | 30 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| MQO Research | 50 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 1 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 53 | 30 | 7 | 9 | 2 | ||
| MQO Research | 54 | 25 | 12 | 8 | 2 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 54 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 2 | ||
| MQO Research | 50 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 5 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 52 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 2 | ||
| MQO Research | 51 | 28 | 11 | 9 | 2 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 45 | 27 | 18 | 8 | 2 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 55 | 25 | 12 | 7 | 1 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 36 | 28 | 25 | 10 | 2 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 38 | 28 | 23 | 11 | 1 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 54 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 1 | ||
| Corporate Research Associates | 52 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 1 | ||
| Election 2014 | 42.72 | 34.64 | 12.98 | 6.61 | 2.14 | ||
Candidates by region
Legend- bold denotes cabinet minister, speaker or party leader
- italics denotes a potential candidate who has not received his/her party's nomination
- † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
* denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district