2016 United States presidential election in Iowa
The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.
Both parties' caucuses were held on February 1, 2016.
Donald Trump won the election in Iowa with 51.2% of the vote. Hillary Clinton received 41.7% of the vote. Clinton's performance in Iowa was the worst performance for a Democrat since 1980. Trump won over a dozen counties that hadn't voted Republican since Ronald Reagan was on the ticket, won 2 counties that had last voted Republican in Nixon's landslide victory in 1972, and won a county that had last voted Republican in 1956. Trump carried Iowa by the largest margin of any Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1980, and was the first Republican to win more than 50% of the popular vote since Reagan's 1984 landslide. Trump enjoyed the support of working-class whites in the agricultural industry, as well as the endorsement of Iowa's GOP establishment. The difference of 9.4% points was the largest winning margin for Trump in a state that had voted for Barack Obama four years earlier. He carried 93 out of 99 counties, the most for a Republican presidential nominee since 1980. This was the first time since 1988 in which Iowa did not go for the winner of the popular vote.
Background
The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected to the presidency in 2008, running with U.S. Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote, Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes. Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it has experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year. Analyst Nate Cohn has noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.President Obama was not eligible to be re-elected after having served two terms. Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.
Caucuses
Democratic caucus
Procedure
There is no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to county conventions supporting Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates.County Conventions
In early March, the delegates chosen in the Caucuses met chose delegates to the Congressional District Conventions.Republican caucus
Polling
General election
Predictions
- CNN: Leans Trump
- Cook Political Report: Leans Trump
- Electoral-vote.com: Likely Trump
- NBC: Leans Trump
- RealClearPolitics: Tossup
- Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Trump
Results
By county
| County | Trump # | Trump % | Clinton # | Clinton % | Others # | Others % | Total |
| Adair | 2,461 | 64.58% | 1,133 | 29.73% | 217 | 5.69% | 3,811 |
| Adams | 1,395 | 66.24% | 565 | 26.83% | 146 | 6.93% | 2,106 |
| Allamakee | 4,093 | 59.12% | 2,421 | 34.97% | 409 | 5.91% | 6,923 |
| Appanoose | 4,033 | 65.73% | 1,814 | 29.56% | 289 | 4.71% | 6,136 |
| Audubon | 2,136 | 62.60% | 1,080 | 31.65% | 196 | 5.74% | 3,412 |
| Benton | 8,232 | 59.46% | 4,678 | 33.79% | 934 | 6.75% | 13,844 |
| Black Hawk | 27,476 | 42.66% | 32,233 | 50.05% | 4,696 | 7.29% | 64,405 |
| Boone | 7,484 | 52.72% | 5,541 | 39.03% | 1,171 | 8.25% | 14,196 |
| Bremer | 7,208 | 53.24% | 5,356 | 39.56% | 974 | 7.19% | 13,538 |
| Buchanan | 5,510 | 53.75% | 3,970 | 38.72% | 772 | 7.53% | 10,252 |
| Buena Vista | 4,903 | 59.23% | 2,856 | 34.50% | 519 | 6.27% | 8,278 |
| Butler | 4,921 | 65.50% | 2,157 | 28.71% | 435 | 5.79% | 7,513 |
| Calhoun | 3,468 | 67.22% | 1,398 | 27.10% | 293 | 5.68% | 5,159 |
| Carroll | 6,638 | 62.96% | 3,309 | 31.38% | 597 | 5.66% | 10,544 |
| Cass | 4,761 | 66.82% | 1,951 | 27.38% | 413 | 5.80% | 7,125 |
| Cedar | 5,295 | 55.50% | 3,599 | 37.72% | 647 | 6.78% | 9,541 |
| Cerro Gordo | 11,621 | 50.60% | 9,862 | 42.94% | 1,482 | 6.45% | 22,965 |
| Cherokee | 4,192 | 66.99% | 1,679 | 26.83% | 387 | 6.18% | 6,258 |
| Chickasaw | 3,742 | 58.15% | 2,266 | 35.21% | 427 | 6.64% | 6,435 |
| Clarke | 2,713 | 60.91% | 1,465 | 32.89% | 276 | 6.20% | 4,454 |
| Clay | 5,877 | 68.20% | 2,249 | 26.10% | 491 | 5.70% | 8,617 |
| Clayton | 5,317 | 58.24% | 3,237 | 35.46% | 575 | 6.30% | 9,129 |
| Clinton | 11,276 | 48.88% | 10,095 | 43.76% | 1,696 | 7.35% | 23,067 |
| Crawford | 4,617 | 66.58% | 1,991 | 28.71% | 327 | 4.72% | 6,935 |
| Dallas | 19,339 | 50.56% | 15,701 | 41.05% | 3,212 | 8.40% | 38,252 |
| Davis | 2,723 | 70.14% | 977 | 25.17% | 182 | 4.69% | 3,882 |
| Decatur | 2,296 | 61.49% | 1,201 | 32.16% | 237 | 6.35% | 3,734 |
| Delaware | 5,694 | 61.62% | 2,957 | 32.00% | 590 | 6.38% | 9,241 |
| Des Moines | 9,529 | 49.88% | 8,212 | 42.99% | 1,362 | 7.13% | 19,103 |
| Dickinson | 6,753 | 65.22% | 3,056 | 29.52% | 545 | 5.26% | 10,354 |
| Dubuque | 23,460 | 47.18% | 22,850 | 45.96% | 3,411 | 6.86% | 49,721 |
| Emmet | 3,124 | 65.73% | 1,357 | 28.55% | 272 | 5.72% | 4,753 |
| Fayette | 5,620 | 56.34% | 3,689 | 36.98% | 666 | 6.68% | 9,975 |
| Floyd | 4,375 | 54.28% | 3,179 | 39.44% | 506 | 6.28% | 8,060 |
| Franklin | 3,163 | 63.67% | 1,493 | 30.05% | 312 | 6.28% | 4,968 |
| Fremont | 2,407 | 66.95% | 963 | 26.79% | 225 | 6.26% | 3,595 |
| Greene | 2,820 | 58.49% | 1,691 | 35.08% | 310 | 6.43% | 4,821 |
| Grundy | 4,527 | 65.88% | 1,856 | 27.01% | 489 | 7.12% | 6,872 |
| Guthrie | 3,628 | 63.10% | 1,732 | 30.12% | 390 | 6.78% | 5,750 |
| Hamilton | 4,463 | 58.01% | 2,726 | 35.43% | 505 | 6.56% | 7,694 |
| Hancock | 3,977 | 67.74% | 1,587 | 27.03% | 307 | 5.23% | 5,871 |
| Hardin | 5,254 | 61.57% | 2,787 | 32.66% | 492 | 5.77% | 8,533 |
| Harrison | 4,902 | 65.67% | 2,131 | 28.55% | 432 | 5.79% | 7,465 |
| Henry | 5,779 | 61.45% | 2,904 | 30.88% | 721 | 7.67% | 9,404 |
| Howard | 2,611 | 57.27% | 1,677 | 36.78% | 271 | 5.94% | 4,559 |
| Humboldt | 3,568 | 70.14% | 1,252 | 24.61% | 267 | 5.25% | 5,087 |
| Ida | 2,655 | 73.50% | 792 | 21.93% | 165 | 4.57% | 3,612 |
| Iowa | 5,205 | 58.46% | 3,084 | 34.64% | 615 | 6.91% | 8,904 |
| Jackson | 5,824 | 56.49% | 3,837 | 37.22% | 649 | 6.29% | 10,310 |
| Jasper | 10,560 | 55.48% | 7,109 | 37.35% | 1,365 | 7.17% | 19,034 |
| Jefferson | 3,748 | 45.95% | 3,710 | 45.49% | 698 | 8.56% | 8,156 |
| Johnson | 21,044 | 27.35% | 50,200 | 65.25% | 5,696 | 7.40% | 76,940 |
| Jones | 5,720 | 56.45% | 3,787 | 37.37% | 626 | 6.18% | 10,133 |
| Keokuk | 3,390 | 68.00% | 1,342 | 26.92% | 253 | 5.08% | 4,985 |
| Kossuth | 5,653 | 65.68% | 2,543 | 29.55% | 411 | 4.78% | 8,607 |
| Lee | 8,803 | 54.50% | 6,215 | 38.48% | 1,133 | 7.02% | 16,151 |
| Linn | 48,390 | 41.32% | 58,935 | 50.33% | 9,773 | 8.35% | 117,098 |
| Louisa | 3,069 | 61.28% | 1,648 | 32.91% | 291 | 5.81% | 5,008 |
| Lucas | 2,877 | 66.08% | 1,239 | 28.46% | 238 | 5.47% | 4,354 |
| Lyon | 5,192 | 81.42% | 920 | 14.43% | 265 | 4.16% | 6,377 |
| Madison | 5,360 | 62.07% | 2,678 | 31.01% | 598 | 6.92% | 8,636 |
| Mahaska | 7,432 | 69.90% | 2,619 | 24.63% | 581 | 5.46% | 10,632 |
| Marion | 10,962 | 61.53% | 5,482 | 30.77% | 1,372 | 7.70% | 17,816 |
| Marshall | 9,146 | 50.87% | 7,652 | 42.56% | 1,182 | 6.57% | 17,980 |
| Mills | 5,067 | 65.82% | 2,090 | 27.15% | 541 | 7.03% | 7,698 |
| Mitchell | 3,190 | 58.89% | 1,888 | 34.85% | 339 | 6.26% | 5,417 |
| Monona | 3,120 | 68.24% | 1,247 | 27.27% | 205 | 4.48% | 4,572 |
| Monroe | 2,638 | 68.25% | 1,056 | 27.32% | 171 | 4.42% | 3,865 |
| Montgomery | 3,436 | 68.12% | 1,314 | 26.05% | 294 | 5.83% | 5,044 |
| Muscatine | 9,584 | 49.32% | 8,368 | 43.06% | 1,482 | 7.63% | 19,434 |
| O'Brien | 5,752 | 77.67% | 1,315 | 17.76% | 339 | 4.58% | 7,406 |
| Osceola | 2,531 | 78.77% | 552 | 17.18% | 130 | 4.05% | 3,213 |
| Page | 4,893 | 69.46% | 1,807 | 25.65% | 344 | 4.88% | 7,044 |
| Palo Alto | 3,081 | 65.51% | 1,398 | 29.73% | 224 | 4.76% | 4,703 |
| Plymouth | 9,680 | 73.39% | 2,885 | 21.87% | 625 | 4.74% | 13,190 |
| Pocahontas | 2,702 | 69.91% | 963 | 24.92% | 200 | 5.17% | 3,865 |
| Polk | 93,492 | 40.38% | 119,804 | 51.74% | 18,259 | 7.89% | 231,555 |
| Pottawattamie | 24,447 | 57.28% | 15,355 | 35.98% | 2,878 | 6.74% | 42,680 |
| Poweshiek | 4,946 | 50.30% | 4,304 | 43.77% | 583 | 5.93% | 9,833 |
| Ringgold | 1,824 | 67.38% | 753 | 27.82% | 130 | 4.80% | 2,707 |
| Sac | 3,703 | 71.05% | 1,270 | 24.37% | 239 | 4.59% | 5,212 |
| Scott | 39,149 | 45.41% | 40,440 | 46.90% | 6,631 | 7.69% | 86,220 |
| Shelby | 4,362 | 68.48% | 1,662 | 26.09% | 346 | 5.43% | 6,370 |
| Sioux | 14,785 | 81.26% | 2,300 | 12.64% | 1,109 | 6.10% | 18,194 |
| Story | 19,458 | 38.40% | 25,709 | 50.74% | 5,500 | 10.86% | 50,667 |
| Tama | 4,971 | 56.80% | 3,196 | 36.52% | 585 | 6.68% | 8,752 |
| Taylor | 2,111 | 69.69% | 758 | 25.02% | 160 | 5.28% | 3,029 |
| Union | 3,525 | 60.44% | 1,922 | 32.96% | 385 | 6.60% | 5,832 |
| Van Buren | 2,527 | 70.96% | 845 | 23.73% | 189 | 5.31% | 3,561 |
| Wapello | 8,715 | 57.53% | 5,594 | 36.93% | 840 | 5.54% | 15,149 |
| Warren | 14,814 | 54.26% | 10,411 | 38.14% | 2,075 | 7.60% | 27,300 |
| Washington | 6,173 | 56.48% | 3,943 | 36.08% | 813 | 7.44% | 10,929 |
| Wayne | 2,069 | 70.37% | 719 | 24.46% | 152 | 5.17% | 2,940 |
| Webster | 10,056 | 57.69% | 6,305 | 36.17% | 1,069 | 6.13% | 17,430 |
| Winnebago | 3,447 | 59.56% | 1,931 | 33.37% | 409 | 7.07% | 5,787 |
| Winneshiek | 5,344 | 47.03% | 5,254 | 46.24% | 764 | 6.72% | 11,362 |
| Woodbury | 24,727 | 56.56% | 16,210 | 37.08% | 2,781 | 6.36% | 43,718 |
| Worth | 2,453 | 57.62% | 1,530 | 35.94% | 274 | 6.44% | 4,257 |
| Wright | 3,800 | 63.06% | 1,896 | 31.46% | 330 | 5.48% | 6,026 |
| Iowa Total | 800,983 | 51.15% | 653,669 | 41.74% | 111,379 | 7.11% | 1,566,031 |
By congressional district
Trump won all 4 of the congressional districts.| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
| 48% | 45% | Rod Blum | |
| 49% | 44% | Dave Loebsack | |
| 48% | 45% | David Young | |
| 60% | 33% | Steve King |