2016 United States presidential election in Georgia


The 2016 United States presidential election in Georgia was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 general election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Georgia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Republican Party nominee Donald Trump against Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton.
On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Georgia voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican respective presidential nominees for president. Trump won the Georgia Republican primary by a wide margin, and Clinton captured an easy victory in the Georgia Democratic primary. The Green Party presidential primary happened on June 4.
In the general election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Georgia by 5.1%, a lower margin compared to Mitt Romney's 7.82% in 2012, but also from John McCain's 5.20% in 2008. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton received 45.35% of the vote, making this a state where she performed slightly worse than Barack Obama's 45.83% in 2012. Nevertheless, Trump's reduced margin of victory also made Georgia one of eleven states to vote more Democratic in 2016 than in 2012. The Atlanta metropolitan area shifted strongly Democratic compared to the previous presidential election, with Hillary Clinton becoming the first Democrat to win Henry County since 1980, and the first Democrat to win Gwinnett County and Cobb County since 1976, when Georgia native Jimmy Carter won all of the state's counties. The state of Georgia has been won by the Republican nominee in every election since 1996.

Background

The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected president in the 2008 election, running with former Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote, Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes. Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50% for most of his second term, it has experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year. Analyst Nate Cohn has noted that a strong approval rating for Barack Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.
Following his second term, President Obama was not eligible for another reelection. In October 2015, Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either. With Obama and Biden's terms expiring on January 20, 2017, the electorate was asked to elect a new president, the 45th president and 48th vice president of the United States, respectively.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the ballot:
The 76 Republican delegates from Georgia were allocated in this way. There were 42 delegates allocated by congressional district; if a candidate received a majority of votes or they were the only candidate to receive at least 20% of the vote in a congressional district, they would receive the districts 3 delegates. If not, the candidate who won the plurality of the vote in a congressional district would receive 2 delegates and the second-place finisher in the district would receive 1 delegate. There were also 34 at-large delegates; if a candidate got a majority of the vote or they were the only candidate to get the mandatory threshold to receive any delegates, they would get all of the state's at-large delegates. If not, the delegates would be allocated proportionally among the candidates receiving at least the mandatory threshold.

Green convention

On June 4, the Georgia Green Party held its state convention and presidential preference vote.

General election

Predictions

  1. ABC News: Tossup
  2. CNN: Leans Trump
  3. Cook Political Report: Leans Trump
  4. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Trump
  5. Los Angeles Times: Leans Trump
  6. NBC: Tossup
  7. RealClearPolitics: Tossup
  8. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Trump

    Polling

Statewide results

By county

By congressional district

Trump won 10 of 14 congressional districts.
DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
56%41%Buddy Carter
43%55%Sanford Bishop
64%33%Lynn Westmoreland
64%33%Drew Ferguson
22%75%Hank Johnson
12%85%John Lewis
48%47%Tom Price
51%45%Rob Woodall
63%34%Austin Scott
78%19%Doug Collins
61%36%Jody Hice
60%35%Barry Loudermilk
57%41%Rick W. Allen
27%71%David Scott
75%22%Tom Graves

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican