2016 United States presidential election in Florida


The 2016 United States presidential election in Florida was won by Donald Trump on November 8, 2016, with a plurality of 49.0% of the popular vote that included a 1.2% winning margin over Hillary Clinton, who had 47.8% of the vote.
On March 15, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Florida voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, America's Party, Constitution, and Socialism and Liberation parties' respective nominees for president. Registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated weren't able to vote in any primaries. Florida is a winner-take-all voting state for Republicans, but is a proportional voting state for Democrats.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Democratic debate

March 9, 2016 – Kendall, Florida
CandidateAirtimePolls
Clinton23:2951.0%
Sanders17:5139.6%

The eighth debate took place on March 9, 2016, at 9:00 PM Eastern Standard Time in Building 7 of the Kendall Campus of Miami Dade College in Kendall, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post. The debate was discussed during a job interview conducted in early 2015 between the Democratic National Committee's then-Communications Director Mo Elleithee and future Hispanic Media Director Pablo Manriquez. After starting at the DNC in April 2015, Manriquez "talked about the idea for a debate for Democratic candidates on Univision to anyone who had ears to listen." The debate was officially announced on November 2, 2015.

Opinion polling

Results

Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Republican primary

Republican debate

March 10, 2016 – Coral Gables, Florida
CandidateAirtimePolls
Trump28:1138.6%
Cruz21:4221.8%
Rubio21:2318.0%
Kasich18:4912.0%

The twelfth debate was the fourth and final debate to air on CNN and led into the Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio primaries on March 15. The candidates debated at the University of Miami, moderated by Jake Tapper and questioned by CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash, Salem Radio Network talk-show host Hugh Hewitt, and Washington Times contributor . The Washington Times cohosted the debate. The debate was originally scheduled considering the likelihood that no candidate would clinch the Republican nomination before March 15, due to the overall size of the field. On the day of the debate, CNN summarized the immediate stakes: "This debate comes just five days ahead of 'Super Tuesday 3', when more than 350 delegates are decided, including winner-take-all contests in Florida and Ohio. Both Trump and Rubio are predicting Florida. For Trump, a win here would fuel his growing momentum and further grow his delegate lead; for Rubio, losing his home state could be the death knell for his campaign." This was the twelfth and final debate appearance of Rubio, who suspended his campaign on March 15.

Results

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Green primary

The Green Party held a primary in Florida on July 31, 2016. Early voting began on July 25.
On July 31, 2016, the Green Party of Florida announced that Jill Stein had won the Florida primary via instant-runoff voting.

Polling

General election

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Florida as of Election Day.
  1. Los Angeles Times: Leans Clinton
  2. CNN: Tossup
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Clinton
  4. NBC: Tossup
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Tossup
  6. RealClearPolitics: Tossup
  7. Fox News: Tossup
  8. ABC: Tossup

    Results


By county

Final results from Florida Division of Elections.
Flipped counties
The following Florida counties had a Democratic win in 2012, but went Republican in 2016:
Trump won 14 of 27 congressional districts.
DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
68%28%Jeff Miller
68%28%Matt Gaetz
66%31%Gwen Graham
66%31%Neal Dunn
56%40%Ted Yoho
62%34%Ander Crenshaw
62%34%John Rutherford
36%61%Corrine Brown
36%61%Al Lawson
57%40%Ron DeSantis
44%51%John Mica
44%51%Stephanie Murphy
58%38%Bill Posey
42%55%Alan Grayson
42%55%Darren Soto
35%62%Daniel Webster
35%62%Val Demings
65%33%Rich Nugent
65%33%Daniel Webster
57%39%Gus Bilirakis
46%50%David Jolly
46%50%Charlie Crist
39%57%Kathy Castor
53%43%Dennis Ross
54%43%Vern Buchanan
62%35%Tom Rooney
53%44%Patrick Murphy
53%44%Brian Mast
60%38%Curt Clawson
60%38%Francis Rooney
45%55%Alcee Hastings
39%59%Lois Frankel
41%57%Ted Deutch
36%62%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
16%81%Frederica Wilson
50%48%Mario Díaz-Balart
41%57%Carlos Curbelo
39%59%Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

Analysis

Florida voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 1.2%. It was the fifth-closest state result, with only Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania closer. According to the National Election Pool, Trump got a majority of 54% from the Cuban-American voters in the state—in comparison to the 71% of Clinton support by Latino voters from other origins.