2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina


The 2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. On May 6, 2014, the primary took place.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan ran for re-election to a second term in office. She faced Republican Thom Tillis, the Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, and Libertarian Sean Haugh, his party's nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002, in the general election. Tillis defeated Hagan by about forty-five thousand votes.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Republican primary

Candidates

The eight Republican candidates on the 2014 U.S. Senate primary ballot were the most in party history in North Carolina, more than the seven on the ballot in the 2002 Republican primary won by Elizabeth Dole.

Declared

Polling

;Primary
Poll sourceTed
Alexander		Alex
Bradshaw		Greg
Brannon		Heather
Grant		Mark
Harris		Edward
Kryn		Jim
Snyder		Thom
Tillis		Other/
Undecided
February 6–9, 2014305± 5.6%10%—13%13%8%2%—20%34%
February 11–15, 2014168± 7.6%——4%4%7%——11%74%
March 6–9, 2014392± 5%7%6%14%11%7%1%4%14%36%
March 17–19, 2014405± 5%7%4%15%11%6%3%4%28%23%
March 19–23, 2014405± 5%1%2%13%5%9%0%5%27%38%
March 27–31, 2014433± 4.8%6%1%15%6%11%2%3%23%34%
April 3–6, 2014314± 5.5%6%5%15%7%11%1%2%18%34%
April 16–22, 2014392± 5%1%1%20%2%15%2%2%39%19%
April 26–28, 2014694± 3.7%2%1%20%5%11%2%3%46%12%
May 3–4, 2014925± 3.2%2%0%28%4%15%1%1%40%11%

Poll sourcePhilip
Berger		Greg
Brannon		Jim
Cain		Renee
Ellmers		Bill
Flynn		Virginia
Foxx		Heather
Grant		Mark
Harris		Thom
Tillis		Lynn
Wheeler		Other/
Undecided
June 12–14, 2013374± 5.1%11%7%8%9%—23%—4%9%3%27%
July 12–14, 2013373± 5.1%11%7%11%11%—16%—1%5%3%35%
July 12–14, 2013373± 5.1%22%——18%————21%—39%
July 12–14, 2013373± 5.1%———25%————32%—43%
August 8–11, 2013344± 5.3%9%7%9%——18%4%4%8%2%40%
August 8–11, 2013344± 5.3%22%———————23%—56%
September 6–9, 2013311± 5.6%13%6%11%———8%5%12%2%43%
November 8–11, 2013498± 4.4%—11%————8%14%20%—47%
December 5–8, 2013529± 4.3%—11%——8%—11%12%13%—44%
January 9–12, 2014575± 4.1%—11%——7%—11%8%19%—44%

Poll sourcePhilip
Berger		Cherie
Berry		Greg
Brannon		Renee
Ellmers		Terry
Embler		Dan
Forest		Virginia
Foxx		George
Holding		Patrick
McHenry		Thom
Tillis		Other/
Undecided
February 7–10, 2013518± 4.3%7%18%5%10%1%—18%3%10%3%27%
March 7–10, 2013530± 4.3%8%12%4%10%1%18%13%—7%2%24%
April 11–14, 2013468± 4.5%11%18%6%12%1%—13%——7%32%
May 17–20, 2013366± 5.1%10%14%7%10%——15%——6%38%

Poll sourcePhilip
Berger		Renee
Ellmers		Virginia
Foxx		George
Holding		Richard
Hudson		Patrick
McHenry		Mark
Meadows		Sue
Myrick		Robert
Pittenger		Thom
Tillis		Other/
Undecided
December 6–9, 2012462± 4.6%—11%17%9%6%13%4%14%—2%25%
January 10–13, 2013449± 4.6%5%11%21%2%5%15%——6%2%33%

;Runoff

Hypothetical runoff polling		------

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Tim D'Annunzio, businessman, Republican candidate for NC-08 in 2010 and Republican nominee for NC-04 in 2012
  • Sean Haugh, pizza delivery man and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002

    Results

Other parties

Certified write-in candidates

  • Barry Gurney, small business owner
  • John W. Rhodes, former Republican state representative
  • David Waddell, Constitution Party member and former Indian Trail town councilman

    General election

Candidates

  • Kay Hagan, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Sean Haugh, pizza delivery man and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002
  • Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives

    Outside spending

In July 2014, Jim Morrill of The Charlotte Observer calculated that as of the end of June, more than $26 million had been spent by outside advocacy groups on the election, with $17 million of it attacking Hagan or supporting Tillis and less than $9 million supporting Hagan or attacking Tillis. By contrast, outside groups spent $25 million during the entire 2008 election. He reported that only $11.4 million had been reported to the FEC, with the rest of the "dark money" coming from groups that did not have to disclose their donors. 27% of the money spent supporting Tillis came from groups required to disclose their donors whereas 69% of the money supporting Hagan did so.
Opensecrets.org placed the final cost of outside spending at $8.5 million for Hagan and $35.5 million attacking Tillis, and $13.7 million for Tillis and $20.9 million attacking Hagan, placing the totals by candidate at $44 million for Hagan, and $34.6 million for Tillis.

Debates

Three televised debates between the candidates were held: the first on September 3 moderated by Norah O'Donnell of CBS, the second on October 7 moderated by George Stephanopoulos of ABC, and the third on October 9 moderated by Jon Evans of WECT-TV.
Video of the first debate is available , with the second and the third

Predictions

Polling


Hypothetical polling		------

Results

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