2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election


The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett ran for re-election to a second term but was defeated by the Democratic nominee, Tom Wolf. Corbett was the first incumbent Pennsylvania governor to lose reelection since William Bigler in 1854.
Corbett was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be reelected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track". Politico called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country, The Washington Post ranked the election as the most likely for a party switch, and the majority of election forecasters rated it "likely Democratic".
Despite Corbett's unpopularity and speculation that he would face a primary challenge, he was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Democrats nominated businessman and former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue Tom Wolf, who defeated U.S. Representative Allyson Schwartz, Pennsylvania Treasurer Robert McCord and former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Katie McGinty in the primary election.
In primary elections for lieutenant governor, which were held separately, incumbent Republican lieutenant governor Jim Cawley was renominated unopposed, and the Democrats selected State Senator Mike Stack. This is the first Pennsylvania gubernatorial election since 1982 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president.

Background

Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years from 1950 to 2010. This has been referred to as "the cycle", but it was broken with a Democratic Party win in 2014. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938; Democrats lost 16 of the previous 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House, a pattern begun in 1860. The last incumbent governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854. Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms. Libertarian nominee Ken Krawchuk failed to file the paperwork to be on the ballot in time and was excluded from the election as a result.

Republican primary

Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi, an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot. NASCAR Camping World Truck Series veteran Norm Benning backed Governor Corbett during the later half of the NASCAR season with Re-Elect Tom Corbett placed on his truck.

Candidates

Declared

Polling


Hypothetical polling		------

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Polling

  • ** Internal poll for the Tom Wolf Campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for the Kathleen McGinty Campaign
  • * Internal poll for the Allyson Schwartz Campaign

    Results

General election

Candidates

  • Tom Wolf ; former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue
  • Tom Corbett ; incumbent governor
  • Paul Glover ; activist
  • Ken Krawchuk ; technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2002

    Debates

  • , September 22, 2014
  • , October 8, 2014

    Spending

As of mid-October, Wolf had raised $27.6 million and spent $21.1 million while Corbett had raised $20.6 million and spent $19.3 million. The two campaigns had run over 21,000 television ads, costing over $13 million.

Predictions

Polling


Hypothetical polling		-------

;With Corbett

Results

By congressional district

Corbett won 10 of 18 congressional districts, despite losing statewide to Wolf.
DistrictCorbettWolfRepresentative
16%84%Bob Brady
8%92%Chaka Fattah
54%46%Mike Kelly
56%44%Scott Perry
51%49%Glenn Thompson
49%51%Jim Gerlach
49%51%Ryan Costello
48%52%Patrick Meehan
48%52%Mike Fitzpatrick
55%45%Bill Shuster
59%41%Tom Marino
53%47%Lou Barletta
53%47%Keith Rothfus
30%70%Brendan Boyle
30%70%Mike Doyle
50%50%Charlie Dent
54%46%Joe Pitts
39%61%Matt Cartwright
54%46%Tim Murphy

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