2011 National Assembly for Wales election


The National Assembly for Wales election 2011 was an election for the National Assembly. The poll was held on Thursday, 5 May 2011 and decided the incumbency for all the assembly's seats. It was the fourth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales, and the second election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.
The election resulted in gains for the incumbent Welsh Labour Party, which gained four seats compared to the previous election and now has 30 seats, exactly half of the Assembly. The party also secured a swing in its favour of over 10 percentage points. The Welsh Conservatives emerged as the largest opposition party with 14 seats, a net gain of two, but party leader Nick Bourne lost his seat. The junior party in the government coalition, the nationalist Plaid Cymru, suffered a drop in its vote and lost 4 seats. The Welsh Liberal Democrats lost significantly in the popular vote and returned five AMs, a loss of one.
British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged eighteen or over on election day were entitled to vote. The deadline to register to vote in the election was midnight on 14 April 2011, though anyone who qualified as an anonymous elector had until midnight on 26 April 2011 to register.
It was held on the same day as elections for Northern Ireland's 26 local councils, the Scottish Parliament and Northern Irish Assembly elections, a number of local elections in England and the United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote may be used to vote for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the 'first past the post' system. The second vote may be used to vote for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

Results

Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP">First-past-the-post voting">FPTP)


Date
conducted		Polling organisation/clientLabConsPlaidLib DemOthersLead
5 May 2011Welsh Assembly election results, 201142.3%25.0%19.3%10.6%2.8%17.3%
4 May 201147%20%18%9%6%27%
2 May 201145%21%18%8%7%24%
14 April 201149%20%17%8%6%29%
7 April 201151%20%17%8%5%31%
30 March 201147%21%17%8%6%26%
8 March 201148%20%19%7%7%28%
26 January 201145%21%21%7%6%24%
22 December 201044%23%21%6%6%21%
24 November 201044%21%21%9%6%23%
27 November 201044%19%21%9%8%23%
3 May 20072007 National Assembly for Wales election32.2%22.4%22.4%14.8%8.2%9.8%

Regional Vote (AMS">Mixed member proportional representation">AMS)


Date
conducted		Polling organisation/clientLabConsPlaidLib DemUKIPGreenOthersLead
5 May 2011Welsh Assembly election results, 2011 36.9%22.5%17.9%8.0%4.6%3.4%6.7%14.4%
14 April 201144%20%18%8%4%2%4%24%
30 March 201145%20%16%8%6%2%2%25%
8 March 201145%20%18%5%5%4%2%25%
26 January 201141%20%21%8%4%2%4%20%
22 December 201042%22%21%5%5%3%2%20%
24 November 201041%20%20%9%4%3%4%21%
27 October 201040%18%23%9%6%2%3%17%
27 October 201040%18%23%9%6%2%3%17%
3 May 2007National Assembly for Wales election, 2007 29.6%21.4%21.0%11.7%4.0%3.5%8.8%8.2%

Constituency and regional summary

Constituency nominations

NB: candidates in BOLD text were the incumbent assembly members. Non incumbents are represented in italics. Members elected 2011 are highlighted with party colours.
ConstituencyConservativeLabourLiberal DemocratsPlaid CymruOthersResult
AberavonTJ MorganDavid ReesHelen Ceri ClarkePaul Nicholls JonesLabour HOLD
AberconwyJanet Finch-SaundersEifion Wyn WilliamsMike PriestleyIwan HuwsConservative GAIN
Alyn and DeesideJohn BellCarl Sargeant Peter Williams Shane BrennanMike Whitby Labour HOLD
ArfonAled DaviesChristina ReesRhys JonesAlun Ffred JonesPlaid Cymru HOLD
Blaenau GwentBob HaywoodAlun DaviesMartin BlakebroughDarren JonesJayne Sullivan
Brian Urch 		Labour GAIN
Brecon and RadnorshireChris DaviesChris LloydKirsty WilliamsGary PriceLD HOLD
BridgendAlex WilliamsCarwyn JonesBriony DaviesTim ThomasLabour HOLD
CaerphillyOwen MeredithJeff CuthbertKay DavidRon DaviesAnthony King Labour HOLD
Cardiff CentralMatt SmithJenny RathboneNigel HowellsChris WilliamsMathab Khan Labour GAIN
Cardiff NorthJonathan MorganJulie MorganMatt SmithBen FodayLabour GAIN
Cardiff South and PenarthBen GrayVaughan GethingSian Anne CliffLiz MusaLabour HOLD
Cardiff WestCraig WilliamsMark DrakefordDavid MorganNeil McEvoyLabour HOLD
Carmarthen East and DinefwrHenrietta HensherAntony JonesWill GriffithsRhodri Glyn ThomasPlaid Cymru HOLD
Carmarthen West and South PembrokeshireAngela BurnsChristine GwytherSelwyn RunnettNerys EvansConservative HOLD
CeredigionLuke EvettsRichard BoudierElizabeth EvansElin JonesChris Simpson Plaid Cymru HOLD
Clwyd SouthPaul RogersKen SkatesBruce RobertsMabon ap GwynforLabour HOLD
Clwyd WestDarren MillarCrispin Jones Brian CosseyEifion Lloyd JonesConservative HOLD
Cynon ValleyDaniel SaxtonChristine ChapmanIan WaltonDafydd Trystan DaviesLabour HOLD
DelynMatthew WrightSandy MewiesMichele JonesCarrie HarperLabour HOLD
Dwyfor MeirionnyddSimon BaynesMartyn SingletonSteve ChurchmanLord Elis-ThomasLouise Hughes Plaid Cymru HOLD
GowerCaroline JonesEdwina HartPeter MayDarren PriceLabour HOLD
IslwynDavid ChippGwyn PriceTom SullivanSteffan LewisPeter Whalley Labour HOLD
LlanelliAndrew MorganKeith DaviesCheryl PhilpottHelen Mary Jones Sian Caiach Labour GAIN
Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyChris O'BrienHuw LewisAmy KitcherNoel TurnerTony Rogers Labour HOLD
MonmouthNick RamsayMark WhitcuttJanet EllardFiona CrossSteve Uncles Conservative HOLD
MontgomeryshireRussell GeorgeNick ColbourneWyn WilliamsDavid SeniorConservative GAIN
NeathAlex PowellGwenda ThomasMatthew McCarthyAlun LlewellynMike Green Labour HOLD
Newport EastNick WebbJohn GriffithsEd TownsendChris PaulLabour HOLD
Newport WestDavid WilliamsRosemary ButlerElizabeth NewtonLyndon BindingLabour HOLD
OgmoreMartyn HughesJanice GregoryGerald FrancisDanny ClarkLabour HOLD
PontypriddJoel JamesMick AntoniwMike PowellIoan BellinKen Owen )Labour HOLD
Preseli PembrokeshirePaul DaviesTerry MillsBob KilmisterRhys SinnettConservative HOLD
RhonddaJames Eric JefferysLeighton AndrewsGeorge SummersSera Evans-FearLabour HOLD
Swansea EastDan BoucherMichael HedgesSam SamuelDic JonesJoanne Shannon Labour HOLD
Swansea WestStephen JenkinsJulie JamesRob SpehtCarl HarrisLabour HOLD
TorfaenNatasha AsgharLynne NeagleWill GriffithsJeff ReesSusan Harwood
Elizabeth Haynes )		Labour HOLD
Vale of ClwydIan GunningAnn JonesHeather PrydderchAlun Lloyd JonesLabour HOLD
Vale of GlamorganAngela Jones-EvansJane HuttDamian ChickIan JohnsonLabour HOLD
WrexhamJohn MarekLesley GriffithsBill BreretonMarc JonesLabour HOLD
Ynys MônPaul WilliamsJoe LockRhys TaylorIeuan Wyn JonesPlaid Cymru HOLD

Regional lists

Mid and West Wales">Mid and West Wales (National Assembly for Wales electoral region)">Mid and West Wales

North Wales">North Wales (National Assembly for Wales electoral region)">North Wales

South West Central">South Wales Central (Senedd Cymru electoral region)">South West Central

South West East">South Wales East (Senedd Cymru electoral region)">South West East

South West West">South Wales West (Senedd Cymru electoral region)">South West West

Target seats for the main parties

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2007 result to change hands.

Labour Targets

Plaid Cymru Targets

Conservative Targets

Liberal Democrat Targets

New members

23 of the members elected to the Assembly in the election were not members of the previous Assembly.
On 17 May it was discovered that two of the newly elected AMs, John Dixon and Aled Roberts, held posts which disqualified them from election to the Assembly. Although they had formally taken their seats at the first meeting on 11 May, they were then removed from membership of Assembly. Both resigned the posts which had given rise to the disqualification. After taking legal advice, the Presiding Officer Rosemary Butler was told that she must formally declare their seats vacant on Friday 27 May, which would mean the candidates placed second on the list being elected unless motions were tabled to reinstate the two. Motions to reinstate Dixon and Roberts were subsequently tabled, and the Assembly Commission issued a press statement explaining the legal situation as they saw it.
The Liberal Democrats withdrew the motion to reinstate John Dixon on 5 July 2011, after the assembly standards commissioner Gerard Elias QC made clear that he had failed to take notice of the relevant rules. On 6 July, Eluned Parrott was sworn in as an AM in his place, and the Assembly voted to readmit Aled Roberts, as evidence showed that he had been directed to out-of-date information in Welsh.

Defeated members

8 incumbent AMs were defeated at the polls.
The following incumbent AMs did not offer themselves for re-election: