There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
D.C. Political Report: Slight Democratic
Associated Press: Toss-up
CNN: Bush
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Newsweek: Toss-up
New York Times: Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports: Toss-up
Research 2000: Lean Kerry
Washington Post: Battleground
Washington Times: Battleground
Zogby International: Kerry
Washington Dispatch: Bush
Polling
Polls showed Kerry in the lead for most of the general election. However, Bush caught up in the last month. The last 3 polling average showed Bush leading with 48% to 46%, which meant that the undecided voters would decide the election.
Fundraising
Bush raised $869,407. Kerry raised $1,289,134.
Advertising and visits
Because of the closeness of the prior election, New Mexico was largely considered as a swing state. Over the general election, Bush visited the state 5 times and Kerry visited 8 times. Nearly $2 million were spent by both campaigns combined in television advertisements each week.
Analysis
Although Bill Richardson, the Democratic governor, was very popular, the state, which voted for Al Gore by 300 votes in 2000, chose George W. Bush in 2004, by 6,000 votes. The only county Bush won in 2004 that he didn't win in 2000 was Colfax County. Half of the population in New Mexico is Hispanic, thus Bush was able to appeal to over 40% of the Hispanic vote because of his liberal position on illegal immigration. As of 2020 this is the last time New Mexico chose a Republican for president.
Kerry won 2 of 3 congressional districts including 1 district won by a Republican representative.
District
Bush
Kerry
Representative
48%
51%
Heather Wilson
58%
41%
Steve Pearce
45%
54%
Tom Udall
Electors
New Mexico voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New Mexico has 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney.
