2004 United States presidential election in California


The 2004 United States presidential election in California took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 55 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
California was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 9.95% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Republicans presidential candidates have not taken California's electoral votes since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in his victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988.
, this is the last time a Republican presidential candidate received more than 40% of the vote in California and where the margin of victory was in single digits, as the state swung hard toward the Democratic Party in the following election. Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win the following counties in a presidential election: Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Stanislaus, and Ventura. This also remains the last presidential election that a Republican won more than a million votes in Los Angeles County and also the last time that the gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates was less than two million votes.

Primaries

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
  6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

    Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls average Kerry leading at 52% to Bush at 43% to Nader at 2%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $20,296,645, the second most money raised state for him. It accounted for 10.7% of all the money he raised in 2004. Kerry raised $36,378,063, which is by far the most money raised for Kerry by any state. The money raised in California accounted for almost 20% of all money he raised in 2004.

Advertising and visits

Neither Kerry nor Bush advertised or campaigned in the state during the fall election.

Analysis

California was once a Republican stronghold, supporting Republican candidates in every election from 1952 through 1988, except in 1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a highly diverse ethnic population and liberal bastions such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The last time the state was won by a Republican candidate was in 1988 by George H. W. Bush.
In 2004, the state did swing slightly Republican by a 1.9% margin from 2000 due to strong swings in heavily populated San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Kern, and Fresno counties, all of which Bush won by double digit margins. Bush also won over a million votes in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the United States. Bush also benefited from strong support by Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state's Republican governor. These factors likely contributed to California being closer than expected in 2004.
Nonetheless, this proved the first time the Democratic Party had won remote Alpine County since 1936 and only the third in that county’s 140-year electoral history, and the first time the Democratic nominee carried neighboring Mono County since 1940, and only the seventh since that county was formed in 1861. Kerry countered Bush's improved performance in Southern California with large swings towards the Democratic Party in Northern California, including the Bay Area, where he won over 70% of the vote in Alameda, Marin, Santa Cruz, and San Francisco counties, winning over 80% in the latter.

Results

Results breakdown

By county

By congressional district

Kerry won 31 congressional districts. Bush won 22 congressional districts, including 2 districts held by Democratic representatives.
DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
38%60%Mike Thompson
62%37%Wally Herger
58%41%Doug Ose
58%41%Dan Lungren
61%37%John Doolittle
38%61%Bob Matsui
38%61%Doris Matsui
28%70%Lynn Woolsey
32%67%George Miller
14%85%Nancy Pelosi
13%86%Barbara Lee
40%59%Ellen Tauscher
54%45%Richard Pombo
27%72%Tom Lantos
28%71%Pete Stark
30%68%Anna Eshoo
36%63%Mike Honda
36%63%Zoe Lofgren
33%66%Sam Farr
50%49%Dennis Cardoza
61%38%George Radanovich
48%51%Cal Dooley
48%51%Jim Costa
65%34%Devin Nunes
68%31%Bill Thomas
40%58%Lois Capps
56%43%Elton Gallegly
59%40%Howard McKeon
55%44%David Dreier
39%59%Brad Sherman
28%71%Howard Berman
37%61%Adam Schiff
33%66%Henry Waxman
22%77%Xavier Becerra
37%62%Hilda Solis
16%83%Diane Watson
30%69%Lucille Roybal-Allard
20%79%Maxine Waters
40%59%Jane Harman
25%74%Juanita Millender-McDonald
34%65%Grace Napolitano
40%59%Linda Sánchez
60%39%Ed Royce
62%37%Jerry Lewis
62%37%Gary Miller
41%58%Joe Baca
59%40%Ken Calvert
56%43%Mary Bono Mack
57%42%Dana Rohrabacher
50%49%Loretta Sanchez
58%40%Christopher Cox
58%40%John Campbell
63%36%Darrell Issa
55%44%Brian Bilbray
46%53%Bob Filner
61%38%Duncan Hunter
38%61%Susan Davis

Electors

Technically the voters of California cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. California is allocated 55 electors because it has 53 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 53 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 53 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from California. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards.
  1. Robert H. Manley
  2. Barbara Schraeger
  3. Paul Johnson
  4. Gary Simmons
  5. Paul Batterson
  6. Diana Madoshi
  7. Kyriakos Tsakopoulos
  8. Donald Linker
  9. Paula Sandusky
  10. Adam Woo
  11. Chloe Drew
  12. Karl Sliferv
  13. Gary Prost
  14. Joseph Cotchett
  15. John Smith
  16. George Marcus
  17. Mark Hsu
  18. Adele Bihn
  19. Darrell Darling
  20. Amarjit Dhaliwal
  21. Rocco Davis
  22. Kenneth Costa
  23. Barbara Pyle
  24. David Johnson
  25. Andrew M. Siegel
  26. Michael Carpenter
  27. Lynda Von Husen
  28. Randy Monroe
  29. Lane M. Sherman
  30. Moreen Blum
  31. Yolanda Dyer
  32. Paul I. Goldenberg
  33. Lenore Wax
  34. Mitch O'Farrell
  35. Franklin A. Acevedo
  36. Gwen Moore
  37. Pedro Carillo
  38. Karen Walters
  39. Ted Lieu
  40. Valerie McDonald
  41. Marvin
  42. Douglas E. Hitchcock
  43. Barbara Kerr
  44. Salvador Sanchez
  45. Joe Baca, Jr.
  46. Grant Gruber
  47. James T. Ewing
  48. Louise Giacoppe
  49. James G. Bohm
  50. Mark Lam
  51. Chuck Lower
  52. Susan Koehler
  53. Mary Salas
  54. Andrew Benjamin
  55. Margaret Lawrence