2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas


The 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 6 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Arkansas was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 9.8% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 11 out of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. Although there was little advertising and campaigning, polling did show a tight race as Bush won in 2000 with just over 50%. However, on election day Bush performed better than what polls showed.

Primaries

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
  1. D.C. Political Report: Leans Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
  5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Leans Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Leans Bush
  11. Zogby International: Tied
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

    Polling

Pre-election polling showed Bush leading throughout most of the general election. Bush frequently reached the 50% threshold, while Kerry never reached 47% in any poll taken prior to the election. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading at 51% to Kerry at 45%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,387,692. Kerry raised $466,194.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.

Analysis

The only areas that went for Democratic opponent John Kerry were the Mississippi Valley and the state capital, Little Rock. Bush performed better in Arkansas than last election against Al Gore, the VP of Bill Clinton, who was the home son of Arkansas.
Although Arkansas is the home of former Democratic Governor and President Bill Clinton, who won his state's electoral vote in both 1992 and 1996, Democratic nominees Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were both unsuccessful in carrying Arkansas, which went to Republican nominee George W. Bush in both elections.
, Kerry remains the last Democratic candidate to win more than 40% of the vote. It is also the last election in which Jackson County, Monroe County, Clark County, Mississippi County, Lawrence County, Clay County, Poinsett County, Lincoln County, Bradley County, Randolph County, Hempstead County and Little River County voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results

Results breakdown

By county

By congressional district

Bush won all 4 congressional districts.
DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
52%47%Marion Berry
51%48%Vic Snyder
62%36%John Boozman
51%48%Mike Ross

Electors

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from Arkansas. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney:
  1. Bobbi Dodge
  2. Gay White
  3. Ida Fineburg
  4. John Felts
  5. Jim Davis
  6. Martha McCaskill